2024 NFL Picks Week 13: Happy Thanksgiving!
Another winning week in the books and we’re starting to feel good about our approach to picks here at Questionably Qualified, but that’s exactly how Vegas wants us to feel. Thanksgiving week features four games before the weekend even arrives, so we’ve done our best to predict the outcomes of all sixteen games in time for the holiday to begin. I will definitely regret some of these if, say, three of the 49ers best players end up being ruled out again like they were last week, but let’s see what we can do on a short week!
Detroit Lions -10.5 vs. Chicago Bears
Chicago was tough against the Lions last year, splitting their two games but actually coming out ahead (+10) on point differential. A lot has changed since then, though, with Caleb Williams taking over for Justin Fields and the Bears somehow slipping from 6th in defensive rushing DVOA to 30th. The Lions still look like the best team in the NFL and I’m almost positive they’ll win this game, but the spread is a little too big for my taste on a short week after Kalif Raymond, David Montgomery, Taylor Decker, and Carlton Davis all left the Colts’ game due to injury. I’d take the Lions at single digits, but I like what I’ve seen from Caleb in Chicago’s last two games. Bears +10.5
Dallas Cowboys -4 vs. New York Giants
I don’t know how to properly respond to the Cowboys’ win over the Commanders last week. There was so much chaos in the final few minutes that you could come away with any opinion on both teams. One thing that stood out, though, was the play of Micah Parsons and the Dallas defense for most of the game. They’ve suffered more from injuries than a lack of roster talent, and if the pieces are coming back healthy they’ll at least be a respectable unit. The Giants can’t reach that standard on either side of the ball, and whether or not Brian Daboll is truly “hopeful” Tommy DeVito can start a second consecutive game, it’s a bad spot for any coach to be in. Let’s keep fading the Giants until they give us a reason not to. Cowboys -4
Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Miami Dolphins
The big question here is whether Tua Tagovailoa can play football in the cold. He looked miserable in Miami’s loss to the Chiefs in the playoffs last year, but that was a different level of cold than what’s expected in Green Bay this week. The Dolphins offense has been good since Tua came back, and the Packers still haven’t shown the kind of drive-to-drive consistency you want to see if you’re taking them as favorites. I think we’ll have a high-scoring game and I’m taking the extra field goal. Dolphins +3
Kansas City Chiefs -13 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I love taking the Chiefs as underdogs, and I love taking their opponents as double-digit underdogs. The Raiders stayed within one score earlier this year and beat the Chiefs outright last Christmas, so it’s not crazy to think they can replicate the Panthers’ success from last week and keep this one close. I don’t think they’ll win again, but this line is too big to pass up. Raiders +13
New York Jets +2 vs. Seattle Seahawks
It seems like there’s a lot of buzz around the Seahawks after back-to-back divisional wins, but their offense is 17th in DVOA and their improving defense is still just 13th. I haven’t had faith in the Jets since before the season started, but it’s hard for teams to be terrible every single week. Coming off a bye, at home, I fully expect Aaron Rodgers to look just good enough to keep Jets’ fans delusional. Besides, we couldn’t have an NFC West team start distancing themselves from the pack, right? Jets +2
New England Patriots +3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson’s completion percentage for the season is below 50% and he’s favored by a full field goal on the road. Yes, he adds running value, but his longest carry of the season went for 26 yards. I was disappointed in New England’s offense last week, but the Colts can’t score like the Dolphins can. If it’s a slugfest and the game script doesn’t get out of hand, I want the home team and the points. Patriots +3
Atlanta Falcons +1.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Falcons have a big rest advantage here, and their wide receiver and running back rooms are better and healthier than what the secondary Los Angeles team can run out. Everything else favors the Chargers here, though, and Jim Harbaugh’s team is going to be pissed after losing a close game to the Ravens. I expect the Chargers to get pressure on Kirk Cousins, and Justin Herbert will have all day to take advantage of Atlanta’s 25th-ranked defense. Chargers -1.5
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I really thought Sam Darnold would go full pumpkin against the Bears last week, but Aaron Jones and Jordan Addison stepped up in big ways to keep the Minnesota offense rolling along. Arizona’s offense barely scored more (9) points than they gave up (7), and now they’re facing the league’s best defense by DVOA. Kyler Murray could make enough crazy plays to keep the Cards in the game, but unless their defense can pressure Darnold, it won’t be enough to keep pace with what Justin Jefferson will do. Vikings -3.5
Washington Commanders -5.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
There’s enough track record now to feel pretty confident that Jayden Daniels is injured and Kliff Kingsbury needs to make some adjustments to sustain Washington’s early-season success. Will Levis is still terrible, but the Titans have a good defense and enough big-play weapons to stay competitive against all but the best teams in the league; they have five losses by more than one score this year, but the five opponents in those games have a combined record of 43-12. The Commanders seemed like that kind of team early in the season, but I have too many doubts to take them with a line this big until Daniels looks healthy again. Titans +5.5
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I can see a lot of ways for the Bengals to win this game, but with the way this season has gone, why would I expect Cincinnati to pull out a win over a Mike Tomlin team? Unless Pittsburgh is really going to fade down the stretch, they need to bounce back this week after a disappointing Thursday Night Football loss to the Browns. I’m just happy to be getting points against the 4-7 Bengals. Steelers +2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +5 vs. Houston Texans
Will Trevor Lawrence or Mac Jones be under center for the Jaguars? It’s hard to believe things could deteriorate far from a 2-7 start, but Jacksonville averaged 21.67 points in those nine games. In the two losses featuring Mac Jones? 6.5 points. I don’t expect them to get far past 7 if he has to play in this one against Houston’s 3rd-ranked defense. Things will be a little dicier if Trevor is fully healthy and back in action, but until I know for sure I’ll take Houston by less than a touchdown. Texans -5
Carolina Panthers +6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers stomped the Giants last week, and while I’d usually put Bryce Young and Tommy DeVito in the same tier, things have been a little different in Carolina lately. They’re still not a good team, but Young is playing much better and this will be the Panthers’ fourth straight home game. Tampa’s offense really struggled against Carolina last year (30 points in two games), and if they can’t get it going here I like the home team and the points. Panthers +6
New Orleans Saints +3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
New Orleans is coming off a bye and the Rams just got blown up by a very physical Eagles’ team on Sunday Night Football. I still like watching Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford work, but everything feels hard for the primary Los Angeles team right now. I’m not ready to take them as road favorites until I see them score 30 points for a second time this season. Saints +3
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Even if Philadelphia’s offensive line is the best in the league, someone has to be good enough to make the non-Saquon Barkley Eagles beat them. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry present a much bigger challenge than anything the Eagles’ improving defense has faced all year, and if you can put Jalen Hurts in a position where he has to throw, I think Philly’s weaknesses will be re-exposed. I expect this to be a really good game, but I think Baltimore is the better team and should be able to cover the standard home line. Ravens -2.5
Buffalo Bills -7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Bills could be set for a letdown coming off their huge win over the Chiefs and a bye week, but there’s just nothing to trust in San Francisco right now. Brandon Aiyuk is out. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel don’t look like the 2023 versions of themselves. George Kittle, Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, and Trent Williams are all in and out of the lineup. If all of their stars are playing, they could absolutely beat Buffalo. I’m counting on more than one of them to be compromised and for Josh Allen to continue his MVP campaign. Bills -7
Denver Broncos -5.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
I don’t like anything about the Browns, but the Broncos-Bo Nix hype train has gained too much steam. Denver played very well in back-to-back wins over the Falcons and Raiders, two teams with a combined one real pass rusher. Cleveland presents a much different challenge on that side of the ball, and while Jameis Winston can absolutely throw the game away, the Browns will be well-rested and hopefully one step closer to re-integrating Nick Chubb into the offense. I’m expecting a physical, low-scoring game, and I’m happy to take this many points in that case. Browns +5.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
