2024 NFL Picks Week 7: Back in the Win Column
That’s more like it! 8-6 in Week 6 and 4-0 in our favorite picks from last week’s podcast. The NFC North came through for us in a big way, but there will be some infighting this week, and with a trip to Japan looming I’ll be making these picks a little earlier than I prefer. Luckily, Reddit has already come through with local recommendations for where to catch the games at 2 AM local time. On to the games!
New Orleans Saints -1 vs. Denver Broncos
Everyone on the Saints is injured and everyone on the Broncos’ offense plays like they’re injured. I don’t know what to expect from either team in Sean Payton’s return to New Orleans, but I’ve felt like garbage every time I’ve watched Bo Nix in non-garbage time. I’d steer clear of this game if I could, but that’s not the deal on our site; I’ll take the home team to win. Saints -1
Jacksonville Jaguars -5.5 vs. New England Patriots (in London)
Speaking of garbage, we have the London Jaguars for a second straight week facing a New England team starting Drake Maye for just the second time this year. I know the Pats have been bad, but the only thing jumping out at me in this matchup is the line. Jacksonville is favored by nearly a touchdown! This Jags team is terrible on both sides of the ball, and the likeliest outcome seems to be a disappointing performance leading to Doug Pederson’s firing on the way back to the States. Let’s take the rookie and the points. Patriots +5.5
Cleveland Browns +5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Okay, it’s almost the same spread, but for a real home team in a divisional matchup. And I don’t care, because Deshaun Watson has been almost as terrible on the field this year as he’s been off it in the past few. Cincy struggled a bit against the Giants last week, but that’s a sneaky good defense. This Browns’ unit is ranked lower in DVOA and hasn’t been lights out against Joe Burrow in the past. Cincy should win by a touchdown. Bengals -5
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 vs. Detroit Lions
Losing Aidan Hutchinson is a huge blow for the Lions’ Super Bowl aspirations, but they still look like the class of the NFC to me. Their offense is firing on all cylinders, and they dropped 30 points in both games against Brian Flores’ defense last year. The Vikings could pull out a win here if Sam Darnold can postpone the pumpkin-ing a big longer, but midnight is coming for the Minnesota offense. I’m taking the better team and the points until Minnesota logs another big, comprehensive win. Lions +1.5
Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Houston Texans
These teams are very similar in my mind; young, exciting quarterbacks and top-tier head coaches. Lafleur’s offensive focus in Green Bay allows them to win back-to-back games with Malik Willis under center while Demeco Ryans’ defensive acumen has helped rapidly turn a terrible unit into something genuinely scary. This is one of the games I’m most excited to watch, but from a betting perspective the number seems just a little bit high. Jordan Love’s play is far more volatile than C.J. Stroud’s, and that kind of volatility should help Houston stay in the game even if they can’t pull off a win. Getting a full field goal feels like a gift. Texans +3
Indianapolis Colts -3 vs. Miami Dolphins
Indianapolis is better than Miami at everything, but that’s a low bar. The Dolphins are 24th in defensive DVOA and that’s their stronger side of the ball! I don’t know who’s under center for Miami, but until it’s Tua Tagovailoa again, I’m not taking them getting less than three points. I’m more confident in this one if Joe Flacco is starting for the Colts, but even Anthony Richardson should have an advantage at home if he plays. Colts -3
Buffalo Bills -8.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Will Levis is my favorite quarterback to bet against, but this looks like a trap line. Josh Allen and the Bills just picked up a huge and emotional victory over the Jets, and now they’ve got what should be a cakewalk on short rest. Tennessee’s defense is pretty good, and if they bench Levis or somehow convince him not to throw the ball away, staying within a touchdown isn’t asking too much against a sleepwalking Buffalo. Titans +8.5
New York Giants +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Nick Sirianni is yelling at his fans again! Of course, this time it’s at the end of a depressing four-point victory over the Browns rather than in the middle of a big winning streak, so that’s certainly…something. I’m not sure what the Eagles are good at anymore; their offensive line is good but not great, especially with the injury to Jordan Mailata, and A.J. Brown on his own isn’t enough to make the offense go. I think people are sleeping on the Giants’ defense, and Brian Daboll should come up with enough ways to attack Philly’s 26th-ranked defense to get us an outcome close to Cleveland’s last week. Throw in the 5-point swing from that game for home field advantage (2.5 points both ways) and this line is just big enough to draw me in. Giants +3.5
Atlanta Falcons -3 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Kirk Cousins as a favorite when Geno Smith gets to throw against Atlanta’s 20th-ranked defense? Intriguing! Seattle needs some of their defensive pieces to get back on the field to keep a game like this from getting out of hand, but the long layoff from their game last Thursday could be enough to make that happen. The Falcons have been good in close games, and their non-Kyle Pitts weapons seem to be delivering in a way they haven’t before, but I’m not ready to bank on them holding off a good offense late in the game. Geno can get us within a field goal on a final drive if we need it. Seahawks +3
Washington Commanders -7.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
I’m not going to overthink this one. Carolina’s offense is terrible by advanced metrics, but they’ve scored points since Andy Dalton took over for Bryce Young, and their offensive line is pretty good. Washington’s defense is 28th in DVOA, and I never feel comfortable counting on a team to cover a big spread when their defense is that bad. There are just too many ways for it to fall apart even if Jayden Daniels gets out to a big lead early, and he’s still a rookie. If this was one point lower I’d count on the Commanders, but over a touchdown I’m taking Carolina. Panthers +7.5
Los Angeles Rams -6.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
You could basically recycle my point from above for this game. I’m taking the Raiders because the Rams’ defense is 30th in DVOA and I think moving Davante Adams gives Las Vegas one week of slightly better vibes before it disintegrates fully and we start talking about Antonio Pierce being fired. Big spreads have been tough for favorites this year, and the Rams can’t dominate both sides of the ball the way big favorites need to in order to cover. Raiders +6.5
San Francisco 49ers -1.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is getting points? Patrick Mahomes is getting points! The Chiefs beat the Niners in the Super Bowl last year, they’ve looked like the better team this season, and Andy Reid is coming off a bye week, negating any rest advantage San Francisco would have from playing last Thursday. I don’t know what the Kansas City offense can do with their current set of playmakers, but their defense has been so good that I don’t need them to score 25+ to cover the spread. Also, Patrick Mahomes is getting points. Chiefs +1.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 vs. New York Jets
Is it Russell Wilson or Justin Fields under center for this game? Some combination of those rumors and the Davante Adams trade moved this line three full points to Jets -1.5 since I made the pick, but we’re committed. T.J. Watt is going to feast on the Jets’ offensive line here, and Aaron Rodgers looks like he’s about six more hits away from giving up on the season or demanding they sign Pat McAfee. Throw in the Mike Tomlin motivation from watching the line flip entirely, and Pittsburgh can win an ugly 20-17 affair outright. Steelers -1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Here’s the real litmus test for Baker Mayfield. He’s been doing well this year apart from a notable dud against the Denver Broncos, which of course was the week I started him on my fantasy team. I can’t rule out spite (I supported you when you planted the flag at Ohio State, Baker), but it’s more likely the Broncos were simply the best defense he’s played all season. The Ravens have been looking better on that side of the ball since their collapse against the Raiders in Week 2, and Lamar Jackson is playing so well that it’s hard to pick against him in any non-Chiefs game. The Bucs have been fun, but they’re about to face a different level of competition. Ravens -3.5
Arizona Cardinals +2.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
What a funny way to end the week. I’m tired of getting burned by the Cardinals, so I’m sure they’ll play great and ruin this pick. I’m taking Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh because they’re playing a boring but effective brand of football that should let them move the ball and score readily against a bad Cardinals’ defense. I don’t expect the Chargers to stay in the top-5 of defensive DVOA, but they’re playing soundly enough to make Kyler Murray do the difficult things to win, and he hasn’t shown the consistency needed to go back and forth with Herbert. Chargers -2.5
That's all for this week! Grab a drink, throw on our preview podcast, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
