2022 NFL Picks Week 10: Betting Against the Colts
As I’m writing this, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson are all A) expected to play and B) sitting on waivers in our fantasy league. Saying it has been a strange season is an understatement, but the NFL is almost never “normal”. So which weird results should we expect to see more of? Let’s find out in Week 10!
Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons rank 16th in DVOA on the season, led by an 8th-ranked offense and competent special teams. The Panthers, on the other hand, are 32nd in DVOA with a “strength” of a 28th-ranked defense. So naturally the Panthers ran for 232 yards and won by 10 points. It wouldn’t be 2022 without a puzzling Thursday Night Football loss. Falcons -2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
It took all 60 minutes and the most offensive display of two-minute defense I’ve seen since the glory days of the Lovie Smith Bears for the Bucs to squeak by the Rams last week. Losing to the defending Super Bowl champ isn’t usually embarrassing, but it might be this year with the Rams’ offense stuck in some imaginary gear closer to reverse than neutral. Tampa Bay has exceeded 20 points just four times this season and reached 30 points only once. Seattle has scored 30+ four times and only scored under 29 points once since Week 3. Tampa’s strong defense won’t be enough to pick up a win in Germany unless Geno Smith really falls apart. Seahawks +2.5
Miami Dolphins -4 vs. Cleveland Browns
Miami’s offense is a terrifying thing to behold, but with Tua healthy their highest-scoring games have come against the Ravens, Lions, and Bears; only one of those defenses even qualifies as mediocre. Cleveland’s offense has actually been steadier, with only one game under 20 points all season. Cleveland is coming off a bye and facing a Dolphins defense with plenty of holes, so I think they’ll be able to keep this one close. Browns +4
Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs. Denver Broncos
On one side, the team who never seems to lose to an inferior opponent and even hangs with the Chiefs when their rookie quarterback has fills in due to injury. On the other, a Russell Wilson Broncos team averaging 15.1 points per game. Denver’s best hope is that a lack of strengths confuses Mike Vrabel and his staff into the wrong gameplan. I’ll take Derrick Henry and the Titans by less than a field goal. Titans -2.5
Chicago Bears -3 vs. Detroit Lions
By the numbers, Detroit should be able to keep this one close and even pull out a road win. Chicago had a bottom-10 defense even before trading away two of their best defensive players, and their offense has been reliant on a recently deployed gameplan emphasizing quarterback runs. I’m leaning into my own fandom here, though, and taking Chicago at home. Bears -3
New York Giants -7 vs. Houston Texans
Alright, the Giants have been a very fun story this year and I’m sure head coach Brian Daboll has some fun ideas coming out of the bye week. But a full touchdown for a team with six wins by a total of 27 points? Even Houston should be able to score some points on the Giants’ 25th-ranked defense, and 14 points might be all it takes to cover this spread. Texans +7
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Big lines haven’t worked out for the favorites this year, and the Chiefs don’t have the defensive personnel to really clamp down even if their offense creates a big lead. If Trevor Lawrence can avoid the backbreaking red zone mistakes he’s made in multiple games this season, Jacksonville will keep things interesting. I wouldn’t count on them to win, but I like getting this many points . Jaguars +9.5
Buffalo Bills -9.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Unfortunately I made this pick before news of Josh Allen’s elbow injury came out. If I had to make a case for it now, I’d say a compromised Josh Allen is still enough to take advantage of Minnesota’s 16th-ranked pass defense, and Buffalo’s defense is the best Kirk Cousins has seen since managing just 7 points against the Eagles in Week 2. For a line that’s shifted by almost a full touchdown, I feel oddly okay letting a big Bills’ pick ride. Bills -9.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 vs. New Orleans Saints
I have no idea what to expect from New Orleans week-to-week, but I think it’s safe to say Pittsburgh’s offense is terrible. If it weren’t for the Colts and their odd Sam Ehlinger experiment, Pittsburgh’s inability to exceed 20 points in regulation of a single game this year would be a bigger story. A healthy T.J. Watt might be enough to stymie New Orleans all game long, but I’m not confident enough in his health or anyone else on the Pittsburgh defense to take them here. Saints -3
Las Vegas Raiders -5.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Speaking of the Colts: they fired their head coach and hired someone outside the organization with zero professional or collegiate coaching experience this week. If the Raiders are going to win another game this year, it will be against a team whose head coach is still trying to learn everyone’s names and a rookie quarterback not particularly good at any aspect of quarterbacking. Raiders -5.5
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I know I spent a lot of time talking about the Rams being bad, but Arizona might be even worse. Their defense has been fine, but they don’t get after the quarterback and there’s clear tension between Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury. The Cardinals are almost entirely reliant on Kyler improv and lots of short passes to DeAndre Hopkins. That isn’t enough to get by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Rams -3.5
Green Bay Packers +4.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I thought the Packers might wake up last week, but their somewhat-improved offense was railroaded by some bad red zone interceptions from Aaron Rodgers. Dallas is just doing everything too well right now to come up short of a touchdown against this version of the Packers. Cowboys -4.5
San Francisco 49ers -7 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Another surprising touchdown spread, this time favoring a 49ers team capable of scoring in bunches despite their quarterback’s limitations over a Chargers team incapable of scoring despite their quarterback’s lack of limitations. Watching the Chargers is infuriating, but it’s hard to be infuriating without keeping things close. I like the potential for a backdoor cover when Justin Herbert is getting a touchdown. Chargers +7
Philadelphia Eagles -10.5 vs. Washington Commanders
The Eagles are just playing better than everyone right now, and any good vibes for the Commanders are rooted in close wins over the Bears, Packers, and Colts. With Philly coming off big wins against the Steelers and Texans, I’m happy taking them again here at home. Eagles -10.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
