2022 NFL Picks Week 9: Injuries Taking Their Toll
New year, same story lines: Michael Thomas is out for the rest of the season. Aaron Rodgers is in the penalty box for poor play rather than spouting misinformation. Derrick Henry isn’t out, but Jonathan Taylor is. At least we have Geno Smith and the Eagles to keep things fresh. Let’s see who can carry us to a second straight good week!
Houston Texans +13.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Two touchdowns didn’t seem like too tall an order for the 2nd-ranked team by DVOA going against the 32nd-ranked Texans, but the NFL is tricky that way. A missed field goal by Jake Elliott, a fumble by Jalen Hurts in Houston territory, and the Eagles only win by 12. Our Thursday Night Football woes are starting to rival Al Michaels’. Eagles -13.5
New York Jets +13 vs. Buffalo Bills
Another big spread to kick off our Sunday slate, this time with the league’s top-ranked team going against the 11th-ranked Jets. Unfortunately the matchup here might be even worse for the underdog; the Jets’ strength is their defense, and Buffalo’s offense is an absolute buzzsaw. Zach Wilson doesn’t look any better than he did last season when he managed 27 points in two games against the Bills. Without Breece Hall to provide a burst in the run game, things are going to get out of hand fast here. Bills -13
Cincinnati Bengals -7 vs. Carolina Panthers
Matt Rhule is not a good NFL coach, but the Panthers have a surprisingly good team despite trading away Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson. I wouldn’t mind picking the Bengals at home under normal circumstances, but they’re without Chidobe Awuzie and Ja’Marr Chase. A full touchdown just seems like too much for this version of Cincy. Panthers +7
New England Patriots -5.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Last year, the Carson Wentz-Jonathan Taylor version of the Colts handled the 9-4 Patriots, starting them on a 1-3 end to the regular season and a loss in the Wild Card round. This version of the Colts brings Sam Ehlinger at quarterback and Deon Jackson into Foxboro, with New England needing a big win to get above .500. We’ve seen the stats about Bill Belichick against rookie quarterbacks too many times by now, and there’s no reason to think Ehlinger will be the one to buck the trend. Patriots -5.5
Detroit Lions +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Okay, so the Packers aren’t very good. Their defense is far worse than its talent merits, and they’ve lose four straight games against a mixed bag of competition. Their offense hasn’t actually been terrible, though, and nothing greases the wheels like playing Detroit’s 32nd-ranked defense. On the other side of the ball, the Lions’ offense has cooled down a bit from their hot start as they weathered injuries to Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. I would love to see the line at only a field goal, but I can’t see Green Bay losing a fifth straight game. Packers -3.5
Chicago Bears +4.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
This line might have made more sense a couple of weeks ago, before Chicago traded away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith. The Dolphins are moving in the opposite direction, with two straight wins and a new defensive star in Bradley Chubb. There’s just…something I can’t trust about Miami yet. They have five wins this season, and only two have come by more than four points. Tua has looked good, but he’s also benefitted from a lot of dropped interceptions. If the Bears can continue leaning on the running game they rolled out against the Patriots, head coach Matt Eberflus has a history of limiting explosive offenses (see: Colts vs. Chiefs). I don’t feel great about it, but let’s take Chicago at home. Bears +4.5
Washington Commanders +3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Washington hasn’t been as dysfunctional on the field as off, led by a competent defense and a strong pass rush. Offensively, Taylor Heinicke has connected with Terry McLaurin and some of the other big playmakers just enough to crawl to a 4-4 record. Minnesota, meanwhile, probably isn’t as good as their 6-1 record suggests; it takes a soft schedule to reach those heights without a top-10 offense OR defense. They can protect Kirk Cousins, though, and adding T.J. Hockenson to the field with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen should boost their offense a bit more. They’re going to face the music of a real challenge next week in Buffalo, but I’m not concerned about them covering here. Vikings -3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Jacksonville has been tough to root for this year, though it’s miles ahead of last year with Urban Meyer. Now they’re home underdogs against a Raiders team last seen laying an egg against the Saints. Derek Carr has inexplicably looked worse with Davante Adams in the fold, and Josh McDaniels seems hesitant to lean on Josh Jacobs despite big numbers every time they’ve fed him the ball. Jacksonville’s offense has looked better play-to-play, but turnovers in the red zone (3 INT, 1 fumble lost) have kept them from consistently breaking 20 points. Neither team has been doing anything particularly well, but with a toss-up I’m inclined to take the home team and the points. Jaguars +1.5
Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I was really leaning towards the Chargers until I started reviewing the injury report. Justin Herbert’s top targets (besides RB Austin Ekeler) are Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter, and Gerald Everett. Not exactly what you want to bring to the table against the league’s 9th-ranked offense by DVOA. The Falcons’ issues in pass protection don’t mean much when they’re running the ball effectively, and while the Chargers have improved their run defense from last season, they still rank 23rd. Justin Herbert just doesn’t have the tools or gameplan around him to justify being favored on the road by a full field goal. Falcons +3
Arizona Cardinals -2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Arizona broke an 8-game home losing streak in Week 6 with two pick-sixes off Andy Dalton in the last two minutes of the first half. The 2022 edition of Geno Smith doesn’t seem likely to present them with such gifts, and they’re better than the Cardinals across the board. I have no idea why this game is basically listed as a draw, so I’m going to take Seattle and not overthink it. Seahawks +2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
It’s a Disappointment Bowl! Tampa Bay comes in ranked higher across the board by DVOA, but they’ve also lost three straight games to the Steelers, Panthers, and Ravens. After beating the Panthers in Week 6, Sean McVay’s Rams used their bye week to prepare for the 49ers…and managed just 14 points in a close game that turned into a blowout late. It won’t be pretty, but I like the Bucs with an array of targets for Tom Brady more than Matthew Stafford desperately seeking Cooper Kupp behind a soft offensive line. Buccaneers -3
Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has been a tough matchup for the Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes era, but they’ve usually had a prime Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and a healthy Ryan Tannehill available. Henry is still looking good, but Malik Willis connecting with Robert Woods isn’t nearly as compelling. It’s going to take every trick in Mike Vrabel’s bag to keep this one close, and I don’t think he has enough to make up this gap. Chiefs -12.5
New Orleans Saints +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans has been a frustrating team to bet for and against this year, but their advanced stats back up their 3-5 record. They’ve hung close in almost every game they’ve lost, but until last week’s blowout of the Raiders they hadn’t won by more than one score either. I could see a similar story playing out here in New Orleans in primetime, but when the spread is three and I can get Lamar Jackson and Justin Tucker on my side, I’m happy to take it. Ravens -3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
