2022 NFL Picks Week 8: Stranger Things (Have Happened)
Alright, things haven’t been going well. Another pitiful performance in the later games has us sitting on a three-week losing streak and 11 games under .500 on the season. But football is a strange game; if you think a comeback in this picks column is improbable, just look at the Jets sitting at 5-2 or whatever the hell the Bears did to the Patriots on Monday Night Football. We got this!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have somehow held a double-digit lead in every one of their seven games and sit at just 4-3, but they somehow seem like overachievers compared to the 3-4 Buccaneers. Tampa’s close loss to the Packers in Week 3 looks worse with every game Green Bay plays, and managing just 3 points against the Panthers last Sunday was a new low. In this matchup, I just think there’s a better chance of Tom Brady’s offense getting into gear than the Baltimore secondary tightening up their coverage against Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. It’ll be close, but the Bucs are better suited to shut the door. Buccaneers -1
Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 vs. Denver Broncos
I am deeply and personally offended by the performance of both these teams on the field and against the spread. I’m glad they’re relegated to London for the week, because they don’t deserve to play American Football in an American time zone from what we’ve seen lately. Of course, the Broncos were supposed to be a solid team this season while the Jaguars signed Christian Kirk to a splashy deal. He’s actually been okay for a WR2 pretending to be a WR1, but this week his middling Jacksonville offense is facing their toughest test of the season. All I want from Russ here is a couple of touchdowns…which, of course, he’s only managed once in six starts. I wish it was a full field goal, but I like the Broncos with the points in a game that might end tied 3-3. Broncos +2.5
Atlanta Falcons -6 vs. Carolina Panthers
Atlanta’s been a fun team to watch this year, but fun is not the same as good; the team with the worst defense by DVOA is likely playing without top cornerback A.J. Terrell this week. Of course, Carolina hasn’t exactly been lighting the league on fire during their 2-5 start, and will be without top offensive weapon Christian McCaffrey and deep threat Robbie Anderson who have both been traded. Something’s gotta give, and while I like the Falcons’ run game, I don’t like trusting that and a porous defense to cover six points. Panthers +6
Dallas Cowboys -10 vs. Chicago Bears
Hey, the Bears’ offense climbed out of the cellar just in time to play the league’s 2nd-ranked defense! Of course, Chicago is still dead last in adjusted sack rate allowed and the Cowboys are first in adjusted sack rate. There is a world where Chicago runs the ball, stays ahead of the sticks, keeps the game close enough to avoid obvious passing situations, and leans on their middling defense to stop the Cowboys’ middling offense. I just don’t think it’s this one. Let’s just hope for Justin Fields to come out in one piece. Cowboys -10
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
There’s not an especially good reason to take the Cardinals here on the road, but they’ve oddly been better on the road than at home over the past couple of seasons. It’s probably a small sample size, but the extra 0.5-1 point here is just nagging me. Minnesota has sneaked by four bad teams (the Lions, Saints, Bears, and Skylar Thompson Dolphins to get to 5-1. The version of this Arizona offense with DeAndre Hopkins should function well enough to keep things close, and I think we all know the Vikings aren’t allowed to have nice things. Cardinals +3.5
Detroit Lions +3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Remember the high-flying Lions of Weeks 1-4? After scoring 35 points per game in that stretch, Detroit has scored 0 and 6 points with a bye week sandwiched in between. They’re hoping to have more of their offensive weapons healthy for this matchup, but I think it’s important to remember they’ve only won four of their last 23 games. If they fall behind here and have to send pressure at Tua, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be winning some fantasy weeks on their own. Dolphins -3.5
New York Jets +1.5 vs. New England Patriots
When I’m looking at these lines, I go over a few things: the stats in the comparison photo above, injury reports, recent performances by both teams, etc. When it’s a division matchup, I usually check the matchup history as well, in case one coach or scheme has a big advantage over a team they play twice per year. This is one of those situations. The Jets haven’t beaten Bill Belichick since 2015, when they won 26-20 in overtime. In fact, they haven’t beaten the Patriots in regulation since 2011, when Mark Sanchez led them to a Divisional round victory. New England has twelve straight wins in the series, and I don’t see a big enough talent or skill discrepancy this season to think we’re due for a big turnaround from last year’s 79-19 combined score. Do YOU want to bet on Belichick getting embarrassed by the Bears and Jets in back-to-back weeks? Patriots -1.5
Philadelphia Eagles -11 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
An all-Pennsylvania party! 11 points seems like a perfectly reasonable spread for a home team with the advantages Philly carries into this matchup, but something is nagging me here. Maybe it’s the Pickett-to-Pickens connection we’ve seen in prior weeks, or maybe it’s the Eagles struggling to pull away from the Jaguars, Cardinals, and Cowboys in their last three games. Either way, it’s enough for me to take Mike Tomlin and a boatload of points. Steelers +11
New Orleans Saints +2 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sometimes these things are complicated, and sometimes they’re not. The Raiders are just a better team than the injury-riddled Saints, and their offense has looked sharp in recent weeks, scoring 32, 29, and 38 points against the Broncos, Chiefs, and Texans. New Orleans has managed to keep things close in every game this season, but two points isn’t enough for me to pick Andy Dalton unless we start to see more (or anything) from Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. Raiders -2
Houston Texans +2 vs. Tennessee Titans
Another small line favoring the road team, and another divisional matchup. Tennessee hasn’t enjoyed a Patriots-Jets style dominance over the Texans, but they’re 4-3 and facing a Houston team ranked dead last in DVOA. I don’t think the Titans are capable of a pretty game at this point, but they seem to just keep winning and two points isn’t enough to scare me away. Even if the Texans do have…uhhh…a decent young running back? Titans -2
Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. New York Giants
The Giants can’t keep getting away with this! At some point, a 29th-ranked defense is going to bite you hard enough to lose, and running Daniel Jones 10+ times a game won’t be a solution to keep things close. I’d like the line here a lot more if DK Metcalf was playing, but Seattle’s offense is plenty capable of doing what the Giants do, only better. Kenneth Walker III can counter Saquon’s burst plays, and I believe in Pete Carroll’s defensive background to make the Giants work for the points they get. I like the Seahawks by a touchdown. Seahawks -3
Los Angeles Rams +2.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Remember what I said about checking the history of division rivals earlier? I forgot to do that when these teams met in Week 4, and I paid the price. Since 2019, Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are 7-1 against the Rams, and Sean McVay’s offense has been held to 20 points or fewer in 6 of those games. I don’t have a great explanation for it, but it’s a real trend. Also, we haven’t seen much from the Rams this week to suggest they’re ready to turn things around, and the Niners’ pass rush is going to be all over Matthew Stafford unless the Rams solved their offensive line woes in the bye week. 49ers -2.5
Indianapolis Colts -4 vs. Washington Commanders
The Colts are starting Sam Ehlinger this week, and it’s not like their offense can perform much worse than it has. I assume they’re counting on his athleticism to help avoid some of the sacks Matt Ryan was taking, but passing the ball is still an important part of the Quarterback job description. Washington doesn’t offer much either, but they’ve been able to get after the passer and almost all of their losses are to quality teams. I don’t know why this line isn’t 2.5 or 3 for the home team, so I’m taking the extra. Commanders +4
Buffalo Bills -10.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers’ best bet in this game might be employing the old Colts-Chiefs strategy of handing the ball off and playing keep-away from the more explosive offense, limiting possessions and opportunities to find a rhythm. The Bills make that approach a lot more difficult by bringing the league’s top-ranked defense into this fight. Their personnel and scheme is designed more to stop teams like the Chiefs and Bengals than the Packers, but I’m tired of being burned by this atrocious version of the Packers. If it was in Green Bay? Maybe. In Buffalo? Two touchdowns isn’t asking much. Bills -10.5
Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Another interesting divisional trend here, with the Browns winning each of the last four matchups. Cleveland’s defense has been really disappointing this season, which raises a lot of red flags with Cincinnati’s offense rounding into shape over the last two weeks, but Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should be able to grind out yardage in this one and slow the game down. More than a field goal at home just feels a tad aggressive. Browns +3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
