2023 NFL Picks Conference Championships: The Giants vs. Ditka and the Ravens vs. Mahomes
Divisional weekend came through in a big way, with two games coming down to their final drives and the other two tied at halftime. Only four teams remain, two with elite quarterbacks and two with top-tier offensive weaponry and play-callers. Can Lamar Jackson join Tom Brady and Joe Burrow in the small club of AFC quarterbacks to knock off Patrick Mahomes? Will the Lions continue their surprising run by knocking off Kyle Shanahan’s top-seeded 49ers? I can’t wait to watch both games play out, but until then, let’s dig into the numbers and make two of our final three picks against the spread!
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Ravens are, by pretty much every measure, the best team in the NFL. They’re first in Defensive and Total DVOA. Their rushing offense is first in DVOA, and their passing offense is fifth. Justin Tucker is probably the best kicker of all-time. Lamar Jackson is the presumptive MVP and head coach John Harbaugh, in addition to understanding basic analytics in game management, hired Mike MacDonald and Todd Monken as his coordinators, both of whom have received rave reviews for getting the best out of their formidable personnel. Baltimore had the league’s best point differential in the regular season, and with their big win over Houston last week they’re now 7-2 against playoff teams (not counting Week 18 when they rested starters) with 6 of those wins coming by double digits.
And yet…
Patrick Mahomes is on the other side of the field here, and he’s getting more than a field goal. I really like what Mike MacDonald has done with the Baltimore defense, but Mahomes and Andy Reid aren’t going to be stymied by disguised coverages and strong secondary play. Baltimore’s worst defensive performance of the season came against Matthew Stafford and the Rams in Week 14, when they gave up 31 points in regulation. Is Mahomes going to fare much worse than Stafford in this situation? The Chiefs’ offensive line has looked better in the playoffs than they did all season long, and I don’t know if the Ravens have the kind of across-the-board pass rush to ruin Kansas City’s game plan (see: Super Bowl LV). Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best single-game defensive coordinators of his era, and he has the best personnel he’s worked with since joining Kansas City. Is he going to shut Lamar Jackson out? Of course not, but he can make things hard for an offense that’s still heavily reliant on Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. I’d be scared to go this route if Keaton Mitchell was still healthy because of the burst he provided on a down-to-down basis, but I think we’ll see both offenses forced to settle for small chunks in a surprisingly low-scoring game. I might be wrong, but if I’m going down, I’m going down with Mahomes. Chiefs +3.5
San Francisco 49ers -7 vs. Detroit Lions
Most of the season I felt like the Ravens and Niners were a tier above everyone else. I didn’t hesitate to take San Francisco as heavy favorites, and it paid off: 11 of their 12 wins came by double digits. Of course, they almost lost outright as 9.5-point favorites last week, and needed an incredibly bad decision from Jordan Love to seal the game in regulation. It’s easy to blame the rain for some of that disappointment, as Brock Purdy was visibly uncomfortable gripping the ball most of the game. Deebo Samuel’s injury made a big impact as well, and he’s considered 50/50 for this game; he didn’t even put pads on after leaving the game, so I think he’ll be limited if he does suit up. That might be a bigger issue for the Niners than most teams, as their three-game slide in the middle of the season coincided with rotating injuries to Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and Trent Williams. Outside of that stretch, the Niners were 12-1 in games where they played their starters. Here are the teams they beat in those 12 games, from worst record to best: Commanders, Cardinals (twice), Giants, Buccaneers, Seahawks (twice), Jaguars, Steelers, Rams, Eagles, Cowboys. They stomped the Eagles and Cowboys, but both teams looked fraudulent in the postseason. The Rams, on the other hand, went blow-for-blow with the Niners’ opponent this week in the Wild Card round and kept things close in a 7-point loss to a healthy San Francisco team in Week 2. Which brings us to the Lions.
Detroit did exactly what a real contender should against the Bucs last week, scoring 14 unanswered points to start the fourth quarter and pinning Tampa Bay deep in their own territory before sealing the game with an interception. Their defense has some holes, most notably against opponents’ #1 wide receivers. In nine games since their bye week, Detroit has allowed an average of 131.7 yards per game to Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, D.J. Moore, Chris Olave, Christian Watson, and Keenan Allen. In two playoff games, they’ve given up 181 yards to Puka Nacua and 147 to Mike Evans. If you zoom out from the counting stats for those top receivers, though, their defense is fine. They’re 13th in defensive DVOA and 1st against the run. Defensive Coordinator Aaron Glenn is doing something right, and Aidan Hutchinson is starting to have the down-to-down impact every Detroit fan hoped he could have when he was drafted second overall. I don’t know if I’d count on the Lions to win this game; the Niners have looked like the better team most of the year, and I expect Purdy to play better this week if it isn’t pouring rain. But this is a big line, and Detroit’s offense is good enough to move the ball regularly against a good-but-not-dominant San Francisco defense. Their offensive line is a match for Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, and Chase Young. Throw in the injury to Deebo, and I’m happy to get a touchdown with a Lions team that doesn’t feel like they’re just happy to be here. Lions +7
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
