2023 NFL Picks Wild Card Weekend: How Much Do You Trust Your QB?
We did it! Our first full season finishing better than the 52.5% success rate needed to cover the vig. Obviously it’s not enough to look into quitting our real jobs, but it’s a nice feather in the (theoretical) cap I could purchase with our (theoretical) winnings.
The playoffs are here, which means we only have 13 more games to pick. Wild Card Weekend is a surprisingly competitive six-game slate, with only one double-digit line and two greater than a touchdown. Let’s dig into the matchups and see who we like to survive and advance.
Houston Texans +2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Joe Flacco’s miraculous run has been a wild one to watch. In five starts, he’s 4-1 with 13 touchdowns and a ridiculous average of 323.2 passing yards per game. That’s about 50 more yards per game than the NFL leader this season, and I’d call it unprecedented if not for an oddly similar stretch in the 2012 playoffs by…Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens. In that postseason, Flacco went 4-0 and threw 11 touchdowns, averaging 285 passing yards per game. There are two key differences between these surprising bursts of productivity: first, the 2012 stretch was against playoff teams with competent defenses, and second, it included 0 interceptions. Flacco has thrown 8 interceptions in his 5 games this year, but the Browns have gotten help from opposing offenses who have turned the ball over 2.75 times per game in four Cleveland wins. The Texans had the fewest giveaways in the league this year, and 3 of their 14 took place in the two games C.J. Stroud missed. I know Cleveland’s defense has been good, but they’re now favored on the road with a 38-year old Joe Flacco under center, and Stroud isn’t going to give them the extra possessions Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Case Keenum did. These teams are pretty comparable in DVOA, and I have enough belief in what Stroud and Head Coach DeMeco Ryans have done this year to bank on them against Flacco 11 years after his last miracle run. Texans +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs -4 vs. Miami Dolphins
I’m pretty uneasy about this one, but I’ve seen Tua struggle in enough big spots against clever Defensive Coordinators to be worried about Miami’s offense in this game. They finished the season 2nd in Offensive DVOA, but they failed to go over 20 points in big matchups against the Bills, Ravens, Cowboys and Chiefs. Kansas City needs to get out to a lead to let their defense do what it does best, because they really struggle against the run. Raheem Mostert had 12 carries for 85 yards when these teams met in Germany, so maybe Mike McDaniel just needs to commit to the run to pull off the upset. With so many important pieces out (Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips) or dinged up (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle) I just think the Chiefs are in a better spot to control the game script and win by a touchdown again. Chiefs -4
Buffalo Bills -10 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I would have been a little tempted to take the Steelers if T.J. Watt hadn’t been injured in Week 18. Without him, I don’t know if Pittsburgh can generate the kind of pressure they need to draw out the bad version of Josh Allen. On the other side of the ball, Mason Rudolph is a definite upgrade over Mitch Trubisky, but I’m not going to give him much more credit than that. Buffalo’s defense is designed to limit the kinds of big plays to Diontae Johnson and George Pickens that provide the vast majority of Pittsburgh’s offensive production. If Rudolph is forced to throw it 30+ times with Buffalo out to an early lead, this game will get away from them fast. It’s a big line, but the Bills have been the better team all season and the Steelers are missing their most impactful player. Bills -10
Dallas Cowboys -7 vs. Green Bay Packers
They really put me in a tough spot with this one. I love picking against Mike McCarthy, especially in the playoffs, but Dallas (4th in DVOA) is a different class of team than Green Bay (13th). For some reason I kind of like the way the Packers’ offense matches up against Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ defense. I don’t know if they’ll score 35 points like the Seahawks did in Week 13, but I could see similar production if they’re able to keep Jordan Love relatively clean. Unfortunately, they’ll need Love to be just about perfect because of how well Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense has played at home this season. We’ve talked about Joe Barry a lot on our podcast, and this won’t be as easy as slowing down the tandem of Justin Fields and D.J. Moore in Week 18. McCarthy is going to ruin the Cowboys’ season with bad clock management at some point, but it won’t be this round. Cowboys -7
Detroit Lions -3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit and Jared Goff faces off against his former coach. I’m pretty sure the Lions will win this game; as we mentioned on the podcast, they struggle more with mobile quarterbacks like Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson than traditional passers like Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and now Matthew Stafford. That said, the Rams’ offense is absolutely rolling: they’ve averaged over 29 points per game in seven non-Wentz games since their Week 10 bye. Aaron Donald can only do so much, but if this one is going to be a shootout I like taking the extra field goal and hoping the chaos causes at least a backdoor cover and maybe even an upset. Don’t underestimate the impact Sam LaPorta’s injury might have on the Lions’ third-down offense, either. He was second on the team in receiving first downs and there’s a big drop-off from him to Josh Reynolds in third. Rams +3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I regretted my decision to back the Eagles last week almost immediately. With an outside chance at winning the NFC East, Philadelphia’s Matt Patricia-led defense gave up 24 first-half points to Tyrod Taylor and the New York Giants and the Eagles pulled Jalen Hurts. Once 10-1, Philadelphia is now 11-6 and on the way to Tampa Bay for a Wild Card matchup. The Buccaneers have won five of their last six games, including an offensive explosion in Green Bay in their one win over a playoff team. I really hope Baker Mayfield was injured in their uninspiring 9-0 win over the Panthers in Week 18, because 137 yards on 32 attempts seems almost impossible. I’ll be sad if Baker is hobbling around early, but I’ll regret it more if I take Matt Patricia’s defense against Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Bucs +3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
