2023 NFL Picks Week 18: The Backup Bowls!
Seventeen weeks down and one to go. We’ve secured a winning season, but we need six more wins to lock up a finish above the 52.5% mark we’d need to cover the standard vig. Of course, the final week of the season is usually the most chaotic; some teams are resting everyone, some will bench starters at halftime, and others are clinging to playoff hopes or wondering if winning another game is really worth it. I usually try not to read too much into what’s at stake in these matchups because basic execution is about more than just starters, and everyone on the field is motivated to perform for their professional futures. Let’s see who we’ll be riding with on our way out of the regular season!
Baltimore Ravens +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Starting off with a classic example of “what’s at stake?”, we have the AFC 1-seed Ravens playing against a Pittsburgh team who (realistically) needs a win to make the playoffs. Baltimore is wisely resting their starters, but is that enough to make this line make sense? Pittsburgh is going into Baltimore with Mason Rudolph at quarterback, and we’re getting more than a field goal with the home team. Tyler Huntley is Baltimore’s backup quarterback, and he’s started three games against the Steelers in his career: a 16-13 loss in 2021, a 16-14 win in 2022, and a 16-13 loss in last year’s Wild Card round. I’m taking the points and hoping for a classic AFC North slugfest. Ravens +3.5
Indianapolis Colts +1 vs. Houston Texans
A 1-point line seems reasonable for a game between two 9-7 teams fighting for a playoff berth, and the Texans’ edge in DVOA (12th vs. 19th) makes up for Indy’s home field advantage. With a line so small we just need to take who we think will win, and I’ve seen enough from CJ Stroud to ride with him in a big spot. Throw in a dramatic edge in Special Teams DVOA and Houston is the better choice. Texans -1
Carolina Panthers +4.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina’s performance this season has been bad enough to trigger their billionaire owner into throwing a drink on fans of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Talk about punching down! Yax and I really thought the Falcons could win the NFC South, but Tampa just needs a win here to clinch the division. The Baker Mayfield hype train finally went off the tracks (again) last week, but he’s plenty good enough to beat Bryce Young by a touchdown when you look at the weapons at his disposal. Buccaneers -4.5
Cincinnati Bengals -7 vs. Cleveland Browns
I guess the biggest storyline here is the continuation of Jake Browning’s audition for the rest of the NFL. He’s certainly looked good enough to earn a shot as a starter when his contract with the Bengals is up, but what else has us excited about Cincinnati? Even with the Browns resting their key pieces, I’d be surprised to see a divisional game like this turn into a rout. Browns +7
Detroit Lions -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Do the Lions seem like the kind of team to throw their hands up in the air and not bother chasing the 2-seed? They won’t know the outcomes of the Eagles or Cowboys games at kickoff, and a win gives them an outside shot at home field advantage until the NFC Championship game. The Vikings are going back to Nick Mullens, who threw four interceptions in a six-point loss to the Lions two weeks ago. Based on their coach and the team’s performance to this point, I expect Detroit to keep their foot on the gas and end their season on a positive note. Lions -3
New England Patriots -1.5 vs. New York Jets
Is this Bill Belichick’s final game as the head coach of the Patriots? If so, do we think he’ll end his career losing to Trevor Siemian and the Jets for the first time since 2015? I certainly don’t, and I’m done counting on the Jets’ defense after watching them get shredded by Tua, Jacoby Brissett, and Joe Flacco in consecutive weeks. Patriots -1.5
New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Atlanta Falcons
My usual reaction to the NFC South is a resigned shrug, but that’s not an option supported by most sportsbooks. Atlanta was in the division’s driver’s seat at 6-6 before losing consecutive games to the Bucs and Panthers. They seemed to bounce back against the Colts but got worked over in Chicago last week. New Orleans has been much stronger in recent weeks, winning three of their last four and nearly coming back against a strong Rams team in their one loss. We’ll take the better team by DVOA to cover a field goal at home. Saints -3
Tennessee Titans +5.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Their season feels tumultuous, but the Jags have just been…fine. Their offense isn’t as good as we thought it could be in Year 2 A.U. (After Urban), but their defense has exceeded expectations by an even greater margin. I thought Tennessee would be friskier than we’ve seen in recent weeks, when they’ve looked like a team playing out the string. Mike Vrabel could always rally them to put together one more competitive game, but I feel better counting on Jacksonville’s defense to shut down Ryan Tannehill or Will Levis with the AFC South title on the line. Jaguars -5.5
Arizona Cardinals +3 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Kyler Murray returned from injury in Week 10, and since then the Cardinals are 3-4 with a -35 point differential. In the same timespan, Seattle is 3-5 with…a -35 point differential. Both teams have wins over the Eagles and losses to the Rams and 49ers in their results. I’m not saying Arizona and their 32nd-ranked defense are just as good as the Seahawks, but with Kyler playing well and facing Seattle’s 24th-ranked unit, they can keep it competitive at home. Cardinals +3
Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Chicago Bears
This is a really uncomfortable position for me as a lifelong Bears fan with low expectations for this year’s team. Somehow the Bears are 5-2 in their last seven games, and while I’m not impressed with the competition they’ve faced they’re currently 7th in weighted DVOA (the same stat I always reference but adjusted to give more weight to recent games). I’m used to Chicago disappointing me when they play against Green Bay, but I’m still not sold on Jordan Love and Joe Barry is a terrible defensive coordinator. Chicago can’t make the playoffs, but maybe they can cap the season by spoiling the Packers’ hopes. Bears +3
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Easton Stick hosting Blaine Gabbert in a stadium with no home field advantage and a game with no consequences. I can’t wait! As for the pick…Kansas City does almost everything better than the Chargers as an organization, and that’s enough for me to take the points in this one. Chiefs +3.5
Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 vs. Denver Broncos
See above, but substitute Aidan O’Connell and Jarrett Stidham in as the quarterbacks. This game COULD have an impact on the playoff picture, but not for either team involved. I don’t value my time highly, but it’s worth more than a deep dive on this matchup. Let’s take the points. Broncos +2.5
New York Giants +5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I’m really torn here because the Eagles are the better team and have playoff positioning at stake, but they also seem to have confidence in Matt Patricia. No one should have confidence in Matt Patricia. I’d argue he never justified confidence in the entirety of his coaching career, but here we are. As bad as Philly’s defense has been, their offense seems to be back on track and they scored 33 on the Giants just two weeks ago. I might get burned by a punt return like I did in New York’s close loss (and cover) to the Rams last week, but it’s a chance I’m willing to take. Eagles -5
San Francisco 49ers -4 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Another backups bowl! Do Sam Darnold or Carson Wentz tickle your fancy? They shouldn’t! Both coaches can scheme up points with subpar personnel and both quarterbacks can throw points away without provocation. It’ll probably come down to a defensive touchdown, so I’ll close my eyes and take the points. Rams +4
Washington Commanders +13 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have won three of their last four games against the Commanders by 15 points or more, and a win here locks up the NFC East. Ron Rivera and Jacoby Brissett could magic up some points and keep things competitive, but the Commanders intend to start Sam Howell in this one. Howell managed 300 yards in a 35-point loss in Jerryworld just six weeks ago. I don’t like taking Dallas on the road, but this is the right opponent to do it against. Cowboys -13
Miami Dolphins +3 vs. Buffalo Bills
Close, but not there yet. Miami looked great at the beginning of the year, but they just haven’t faced enough top competition to make me believe in them. The Dolphins have played five games against playoff teams; they have a 2-point home win over the Cowboys, three double-digit road losses, and a 7-point loss to the Chiefs in Germany. Buffalo spanked Miami 48-20 back in Week 4 before both teams were hit hard by the injury bug, and while the faces will be different the defensive approach from Sean McDermott should largely be the same. I’m fading this version of the Dolphins until the healthy, explosive version of their offense shows up for a whole game again. Bills -3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
