2023 NFL Picks Week 17: Who's Under Center Where?
Those Jets (from 27-7 to 30-28 on a -3 line) and Packers (30-16 to 33-30 on a -5 line) games really went south for me, and now we haven’t had a winning week since Thanksgiving. We have two more full slates before we reach the playoffs and I want to build a little more cushion over .500 before we get there. Let’s see if we can pull it off amidst the chaos created by 14 backup quarterbacks and three interim coaches!
Cleveland Browns -7 vs. New York Jets
Thursday Night Football provides us with a fascinating choice: Trevor Siemian against a banged-up version of the best defense in football? Or Joe Flacco laying seven points against the 3rd-best defense in football? I figured we’d finally see Flacco fall back to earth facing a really good pass defense for the first time this year, so of course he’s thrown for 296 yards and three touchdowns in the first half. Tough way to start. Jets +7
Dallas Cowboys -6 vs. Detroit Lions
The Cowboys have been much better at home than on the road. They’re 7-0 at AT&T Stadium with 5 wins by 7 or more points and now 3-5 on the road after back-to-back losses to the Bills and Dolphins. Detroit’s a step down from both of those teams by advanced metrics, but they fit a similar profile of top-10 offense and middling defense. So will this one more closely resemble the Lions’ 41-38 win over the best version of the Chargers? Or will the Cowboys look like Baltimore when they stomped Detroit 38-6 in Week 7? I’m hesitant to count on Dallas turning in that kind of performance, so I’ll take the points. Lions +6
Houston Texans -4 vs. Tennessee Titans
C.J. Stroud is going to be back for the Texans, and they still have a chance to win the AFC South with Jacksonville’s recent struggles. Tennessee seemed to get a little boost from the return of Ryan Tannehill last week, but I haven’t seen enough to think they’re ready to consistently compete with good teams on the road. Stroud is the rare rookie I don’t mind backing in a big spot against Mike Vrabel. Texans -4
Washington Commanders +13 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners had a rough go against Baltimore last week, but if a few tipped balls went the other way we would have been treated to a gem of a game. San Francisco has won 9 games by 13 or more points already this season, and traveling to Washington shouldn’t cause them too many problems. If Jacoby Brissett plays the entire game I ‘ll be a little nervous, but the Commanders have already lost by 14+ at home three times this season and they can certainly do it again. 49ers -13
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Okay, picking the Jaguars hasn’t felt good in a while, but every team has a floor, right? Jacksonville has lost four straight games, but injuries to Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk have to explain at least some of that. Despite their recent struggles, I expect the Jags’ 10th-ranked defense to look much better against Bryce Young than Joe Barry’s unit did. Unless Lawrence is far worse off than we’re seeing, he can win by a touchdown against the Panthers. Jaguars -6.5
Philadelphia Eagles -12 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Philadelphia has won by double digits twice this season and the last time was Week 7. Of course the Cardinals aren’t good, but if James Conner and Kyler Murray are both playing they have enough on offense to cause a little chaos. Maybe I’ll feel stupid about this one when Jalen Hurts jumps out to a three touchdown lead in the first half, but I’ll feel even stupider if I count on a team employing Matt Patricia to shut down an opponent. Cardinals +12
Buffalo Bills -12.5 vs. New England Patriots
This Bills team just keeps riding the rollercoaster, and as concerning as a narrow win over Easton Stick last week might be, the Patriots’ 29-25 win in Week 7 was a long time ago. Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense have hit a new level in recent weeks, and they’ve been great at home all season; in true home games they’re 6-1 with a point differential of +112. Bailey Zappe has had just enough fun to kick New England out of the top two of the draft, but he won’t be getting the job done in Buffalo this weekend. Bills -12.5
New York Giants +5.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The return of Tyrod Taylor scares me here, but he’s struggled to stay healthy for quite a while now. How is he going to hold up with Aaron Donald chasing him around? The Rams have just been too good on offense (29.8 points per game since their Week 10 bye) to expect a flop against New York’s 25th-ranked defense. This line should be at least a touchdown. Rams -5.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Baker Mayfield has been playing the best ball of his career, but are there people out there who expect that to last forever? The NFC South is designed for chaos, and nothing would cause more confusion than the Bucs losing to the Saints here while the Falcons beat the Bears and set us up with a trio of 8-8 teams heading into Week 17. If you want a sharper angle…I don’t think I have one. But I don’t trust Baker Mayfield either way. Saints +2.5
Indianapolis Colts -3.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Antonio Pierce’s tenure as the Raiders’ interim coach has been a success. Since taking over before Week 9, Las Vegas is 4-3 with big wins over the Chargers and Chiefs. There just isn’t anything sustainable about what’s happened in the last two games to give me hope here. The Colts aren’t dominant, but if they can avoid giving up defensive touchdowns and keep things simple they’re plenty good enough to limit any damage Aidan O’Connell might do. Give me Gardner at home! Colts -3.5
Chicago Bears -3 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Nothing about the Falcons makes sense, and I’m coming to grips with that. Maybe Taylor Heinicke just needs to be brought off the bench twice to be successful! Maybe Bijan Robinson really is best with less than 20 touches per game! Whatever weird methods they’re employing, they’re good enough to keep things interesting against a Chicago team with decent peripheral numbers but no real strengths and a fear of 50+ yard field goal attempts. Falcons +3
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
If the Ravens win this game, they’ll clinch the top seed in the AFC and a first-round playoff bye. Miami is the only team with a chance to catch them, and they’re traveling to take on the NFL’s best team by DVOA. If Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were both healthy I’d love to see a shootout for the top seed here, but with the way Baltimore has been playing I expect them to tie things up without too much drama and get a week of rest before the playoffs. Ravens -3.5
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Geno Smith is favored by more than a field goal over a Pittsburgh team sitting at 8-7 and in the thick of the playoff race. What a world we live in! Of course the Seahawks can win this game, but the Steelers are always doing weird things this time of year. Even if they lose, the final score will probably be 17-14 or 18-16 for a bit of extra weirdness. Steelers +3.5
Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is one of the rare teams to give the Chiefs’ offense trouble consistently over the past few years, and this version of Kansas City doesn’t need help struggling on that side of the ball. I expect the Bengals to get enough out of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to get some points on the board with the way Jake Browning has played. I can’t count on the Chiefs to cover big spreads with the way they’ve played in the second half of the season. Bengals +7
Denver Broncos -3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Broncos have made the decision to move from Russell Wilson to Jarrett Stidham, and that’s all I need to count on Easton Stick and the Brandon Staley-less Chargers. I can’t picture either offense looking great with the way they’ve played and who’s under center, so I’m taking the points. Chargers +3.5
Minnesota Vikings -1 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Vikings can’t be trusted because their quarterback carousel undermines a strong defense, but the Packers can’t be trusted because Joe Barry runs their defense and regularly accomplishes unique feats like not sacking Tommy DeVito and giving up 300 yards to Bryce Young. So who do you take in a clash of untrustworthy NFC North teams with low-level playoff appearances at stake? I guess the team not starting Jaren Hall. Packers +1
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
