2023 NFL Picks Super Bowl: The Niners vs. The Deep State
What a year to be an NFL fan! We got two competitive Conference Championship games with dramatically different styles: The Lions stopped scoring for just a few minutes and it was enough to sink them against the 49ers, and the Ravens slugged it out but came up short against the Chiefs.
The result is a familiar matchup, with Patrick Mahomes taking on Nick Bosa and Kyle Shanahan. A lot has changed since 2020, though, and it would be silly to expect this game to play out the exact same way…right?
Kansas City Chiefs +2 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Let’s run back a bit of what we said last week: the 49ers are, by pretty much every measure, the second-best team in the NFL. They’re first in Offensive and second in Total DVOA. Their rushing offense is second in DVOA, and their passing offense is first. San Francisco had the league’s third-best point differential in the regular season, and with their win over Detroit last week they’re now 7-2 against playoff teams (not counting Week 18 when they rested starters) with 4 of those wins coming by double digits. The similarities start to fall apart after that; Jake Moody has been a massive disappointment compared to normal kickers, nevermind Justin Tucker, and while Kyle Shanahan’s playcalling is top-tier, his game management is questionable and Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks hasn’t been inspiring. We thought San Francisco would have a dominant defense, but they’ve looked vulnerable against Green Bay and Detroit in the playoffs. Both teams were able to run the ball effectively and get chunk plays with cleverly-designed and well-timed passing concepts. They’re in the Super Bowl for the second time in four years, but the 2023-24 Niners have two wins by a combined six points; the 2019-20 version was +34 in the playoffs before the Super Bowl.
And yet…
They’re favored! On a neutral field against Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy and the 49ers are giving two points. Picks are never this easy, but I can’t figure out where this line came from. Let's start with the defense, where Kansas City has been strong all season and even better in the playoffs. Brock Purdy has been good since he took over midway through last season, but we've seen him struggle when teams consistently pressure him. Chris Jones and George Karlaftis can provide push, and that's before getting into the creative blitzes Steve Spagnuolo has been using to great effect all year. We just watched the Chiefs shut down the Ravens, and while I don't expect Kyle Shanahan to abandon the run the same way Baltimore did, this is the toughest test the Niners’ offense has faced since they were beat up by the Ravens in Week 16. The last time they scored 25+ against a top-10 defense? Week 10 against the Jaguars.
While this version of the Chiefs’ offense hasn't been setting records, it speaks to our expectations of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid that the 8th-best offense by DVOA feels like such a disappointment. They “only” managed 17 points against the league’s best defense last week, but this Niners team doesn't present nearly as strong a challenge, now or historically. First, let's look at how Mahomes and Reid have fared against the 49ers over the years. In 2018, when Mahomes burst onto the scene, the Chiefs hosted Jimmy G and won 38-27. Kareem Hunt and Sammy Watkins joined Travis Kelce as the biggest weapons for Kansas City that day. A season and a half later, they met in the Super Bowl; the Chiefs won 31-20 against the league’s #2 defense by DVOA with some big fourth quarter plays from Tyreek Hill. Last season the Chiefs traveled to San Francisco in Week 7 and won 44-23 with big contributions from Mecole Hardman and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Those 49ers went on to have the league's best defense by DVOA.
This version of the 49ers’ defense isn't as good as last year's unit under DeMeco Ryans, and we've seen the results in recent weeks. The weapons Mahomes and Reid used to score 44 points last year aren't all that different from what they have this weekend, and while they might not get to 40, I'd be surprised if they couldn't reach 27 or 30. They're just too good at attacking basic schemes like San Francisco’s, and we haven't seen the creativity from Steve Wilks to make me think they’ll throw the Chiefs off-balance somehow. Maybe Nick Bosa proves me wrong and dominates the game against Jawaan Taylor, but I just don't see it happening all game long. Chiefs +2
Chiefs 31, 49ers 28
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
