2023 NFL Picks Divisional Weekend: Remember the Ravens and Niners?
What a week! The games themselves were terrible, but Lions-Rams paid off on its narrative in a rare way and our picks came through. We only have seven games and three weekends left, and most of the truly inept quarterbacks and coaches (I’m looking at you, Joe Barry) are gone by now. Let’s see if Divisional Weekend can give us four compelling games on our way to the final four teams!
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 vs. Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud’s performance against the Browns last week was incredible. Yax and I expressed some skepticism over just how good Jim Schwartz’s unit was, but three touchdowns and no turnovers is great against any team. Cleveland’s defense was a top-5 unit and the rookie showed no signs of duress carving them up. Now Houston has to travel to Baltimore to take on what DVOA says is THE top defense, and the quarterback on the other side is the presumed MVP instead of a 38-year old Joe Flacco. Baltimore finished first in total DVOA and 13-3 when they weren’t resting starters, with double-digit wins over playoff teams like the 49ers, Dolphins, Lions, Browns, and Texans. That win over Houston was way back in Week 1, but I don’t think enough has changed to steer me away from the Ravens here. I love watching Stroud, but it isn’t his year; almost everything suggests it’s Baltimore’s. Ravens -9.5
San Francisco 49ers -10 vs. Green Bay Packers
We have a bit of a mirror image here: another big line with the #1 seed hosting a surprise playoff team with a young quarterback who really showed out in Wild Card Weekend. Jordan Love looked great against a relatively static Cowboys’ defense last week and has now won seven of his last nine starts with 21 TDs and 1 INT over that stretch. The 49ers defense won’t be caught off-guard this week, though, and their scheme is harder to gash than what Dan Quinn rolls out in Dallas. If San Francisco, who finished first in Offensive DVOA by a mile, doesn’t look lost to start the game against Joe Barry’s 27th-ranked unit, Love should struggle a bit more with Chase Young and Nick Bosa heating him up. I can’t imagine the Niners failing to score 30 points here, and like Baltimore they beat multiple playoff teams (Steelers, Cowboys, Bucs, Eagles) by multiple scores already this season. There have been two teams way ahead of the pack this season, and I remember how good they looked the last time they played their starters. 49ers -10
Detroit Lions -6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m so happy for my Lions-fan friends, and even happier that they got their first playoff win in so long without covering the spread. I was really impressed with their performance against the Rams, especially with how Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson drew up crucial plays and how Head Coach Dan Campbell made analytically-friendly decisions to push his advantages. The Bucs looked pretty good knocking off the defending NFC Champion Eagles, but was it really about how good they looked? Or was it how disinterested Philly seemed? I don’t think Jared Goff will have any trouble working past the blitz schemes of Todd Bowles, and we know Baker Mayfield can be forced into mistakes if his easy options are taken away. With a big weight off their shoulders, I expect Detroit’s offense to roll all day and the score to get out of hand when Baker has to play catchup. Lions -6
Buffalo Bills -3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is getting a full field goal! In the playoffs! Against a team that was only up by seven points in the fourth quarter against Mason Rudolph last week! There’s a lot of analysis to be done here, with the Bills holding an edge in total DVOA and seemingly positioned to run the ball well at home against a Kansas City defense much better against the pass. But the Bills are down even more defenders after last week’s win, and Andy Reid must be excited to pick on their weak links with Travis Kelce and the finally-emerging Rashee Rice. I’m sure Josh Allen will make some incredible plays; he might even make enough to win this game. But Mahomes will do the same without some of the head-scratchers Allen throws in. I like K.C. to win outright, so getting three feels like a gift. Chiefs +3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
