2023 NFL Picks Week 16: The Time of Miracles
The holiday season is in full swing, and there’s enough football spread across this weekend to fill any awkward gaps in conversation. We’re just a couple good weeks away from securing our best-ever finish, so let’s see if the miracles break our way in Week 16!
Los Angeles Rams -4 vs. New Orleans Saints
Whether it’s injuries, bad luck, or scheme, the Saints’ offense just can’t seem to get into gear this year. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are having no such trouble, and with Kyren Williams back in the lineup the Rams’ offense is clicking. I like the home team here with their full complement of weapons. Rams -4
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Jake Browning keeps on beating me, but I can’t bring myself to pick him here. Pittsburgh shut the Bengals down when these teams met in Week 12, and Mason Rudolph is a significant upgrade over Mitchell Trubisky. Maybe this is the year it all falls apart for Mike Tomlin and company, but I’m taking them and the points on the way to finishing .500 or better once again. Steelers +2.5
Los Angeles Chargers +11 vs. Buffalo Bills
Yax and I have discussed the new coach bump throughout the season, and it’s hard to imagine a bigger bump than going from Brandon Staley to anyone else. Unfortunately for the Chargers, interim head coach Giff Smith will be counting on Easton Stick to put up points on the once-again-hot Buffalo Bills. I have no doubt Josh Allen can crack 30 points here, and Stick just hasn’t shown the ability to keep pace with that. Bills -11
New York Jets -3 vs. Washington Commanders
I’ve laughed at the Jets a lot this year, but nothing has been funnier than the “news” that Aaron Rodgers won’t be returning to the field this season. If you, like Woody Johnson and the other clowns running the Jets, thought differently, I’m sorry; that’s just not how Achilles tendon injuries work. I have good news, though! I’m picking the Jets this week. Washington’s defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone, and the Jets’ defense is holding strong despite realistically being out of the playoff race since Rodgers went down. Doing one thing well is enough to beat the Commanders by a field goal. Jets -3
Carolina Panthers +5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Carolina picked up their second win against our consensus pick for NFC South champion last week, so it was a real double whammy for yours truly who is also waiting on the Panthers’ pick. Green Bay has regressed to the team we thought they were in back-to-back losses to Tommy DeVito and Baker Mayfield, but both of those quarterbacks have shown more than Bryce Young this season. Unless Jordan Love really falls apart, Green Bay should win by a touchdown. Packers -5
Minnesota Vikings +3 vs. Detroit Lions
Nick Mullens is enough to make this line a field goal? I expected Detroit’s big win last week to make more of an impression, but I’m happy with the result. Jared Goff struggles under pressure, but being under pressure is different than just being blitzed. If the Lions’ offensive line keeps up their recent play and picks up the exotic schemes Brian Flores throws at them, they’ll give Goff enough time to execute all game long. Minnesota’s offense is too banged up to get into a shootout. Lions -3
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
We’re about ready to give up on the Falcons, which makes this line all the more confusing. Why are the 6-8 Falcons (28th in DVOA) favored over the 8-6 Colts (17th in DVOA) by the standard home line? You could argue Atlanta needs the game more, but Indianapolis is still in the middle of a divisional race. I’m not going to overthink this one; I’ll take the better team and the points. Colts +2.5
Houston Texans +2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Joe Flacco killed my Bears and my fantasy football hopes with his late-game touchdown to Amari Cooper last week. It’s a difficult reality to grasp in 2023, so I’m going to stay in denial a bit longer. Cleveland can’t keep winning with Joe Flacco under center, and I liked what I saw from Houston last week even without C.J. Stroud. I’ll take the home team and hope DeMeco Ryans can keep it going. Texans +2.5
Tennessee Titans +3 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Two teams I’d rather give up picking altogether. Since that's not an option, we'll take the more volatile one. If Geno Smith is back for the Seahawks, they have enough juice in the passing game to complement Kenneth Walker on the ground and carry Seattle to a big road win. There's a world where Derrick Henry controls the game start to finish, but I think we're past the days of banking on that. Seahawks -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers EVEN vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I'll regret this choice if C.J. Beathard is filling in for Trevor Lawrence, but if both teams have their starting quarterbacks I feel pretty good picking Lawrence and a top-10 defense against Baker Mayfield. Something tells me the Jags will do more than Joe Barry to keep the Bucs away from a perfect passer rating. Jaguars to win
Chicago Bears -4.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Chicago collapsed terrifically against the Browns last week while the Cardinals were run out of the stadium by the 49ers, so neither squad is riding high coming into Christmas weekend. What else is new? I don't see any indicators, superficial or statistical, to suggest a meaningful gap between these squads, so we're taking the points. Cardinals +4.5
Miami Dolphins -1.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas has struggled this year on the road and against strong, committed run games. Despite the high-flying numbers, the Dolphins have the league’s 2nd-ranked rushing offense and they'll be playing this game in Miami. If we can count on Mike McCarthy for anything, it's disappointment. Even without Tyreek Hill, I like the Dolphins to win. Dolphins -1.5
Denver Broncos -7 vs. New England Patriots
Not as much intrigue in this matchup as in years past, but it might be interesting to watch Bill Belichick and Sean Payton square off. Denver should win this game with the way they've handled other teams with bad offenses, but New England’s defense has been too good for me to like this spread against a limited Russell Wilson offense. Broncos to win, but Pats to cover. Patriots +7
Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are coming off a 63-point performance with a rest advantage and they're still double digit underdogs here. I'm just not going to worry about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs until they lose to some bad teams or slip back into their old ways on defense. They've crushed the Raiders more often than not in the Mahomes era, and I think it will happen again with the Kansas City defense shutting down Aidan O'Connell. Chiefs -10
Philadelphia Eagles -13.5 vs. New York Giants
I'm calling an audible! I’ve been leaning Eagles all week, but nothing screams “help” like asking Matt Patricia to contribute to your team. Of course Tommy DeVito shouldn't be able to keep things close against Jalen Hurts, but it's Christmas, Theo! It's the time of miracles! Eagles -13.5
San Francisco 49ers -5.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
A matchup too exciting to waste energy gambling on. I think the 49ers are the standalone class of the league, but Baltimore is too good to be getting this many points. Mike McDonald should do enough with that Ravens defense to keep this game from getting out of control, and Lamar can make enough plays to cover this spread. Ravens +5.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
