2023 NFL Picks Week 15: Backups All Around!
Bit of a step back last week, but no one wins forever. This week’s lines feel a little more straightforward, but there’s only so much logic to apply when more than a third of the league is playing someone other than their Week 1 starter at quarterback. We have one game Thursday, three games Saturday, and only one on Monday this week; let’s run through them all and see if we can get back on track!
Las Vegas Raiders -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I expected the drop from Justin Herbert to Easton Stick to be bad, but Aidan O’Connell hadn’t been covering himself in glory since taking over as the Raiders’ full-time starter in Week 9. After scoring 30 points on the Giants, the Raiders averaged 11.5 points in their next four games. I liked getting points in a game between two disappointing teams, but it went wrong very quickly. Brandon Staley was fired after his team gave up 63 points on Thursday Night Football, and we’re 0-1 to start the week. Chargers +3
Carolina Panthers +3 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Carolina is 1-12 and they’ve lost their last six games by an average of 12 points. Atlanta is mysterious, but I’m comfortable taking any team in the league giving just a field goal to the Panthers at this point. Falcons -3
New Orleans Saints -6 vs. New York Giants
No faith in Tommy DeVito, even after his big win over the Packers on Monday Night Football! If this was the version of the Saints we saw early in the season I wouldn’t mind asking them to cover a touchdown at home, but at this point Michael Thomas is out, Chris Olave and Taysom Hill are banged up, and Derek Carr looks like he needs medical attention when he’s not yelling at teammates. Will DeVito win on the road? No idea, but this line is too high to pass up. Giants +6
Miami Dolphins -9 vs. New York Jets
Miami was mighty disappointing in their loss to the Titans, but they’re at home here against a team they beat by 21 points less than a month ago. Zach Wilson has shown he CAN be that big of an upgrade over Tim Boyle, but I won’t count on it week after week. Vic Fangio has gotten some good performances from the Dolphins’ defense in recent weeks, and I expect another one here. Even if Tua and Tyreek struggle to get things going, Raheem Mostert and the Miami ground game should be enough to win 24-10. Dolphins -9
Green Bay Packers -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Joe Barry’s defense was exposed last week when they gave up an easy game-winning field goal to Tommy DeVito and the Giants in less than two minutes. Tampa Bay brings a lot more firepower into this matchup with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin healthy, and I’m not sure I trust Jordan Love against Todd Bowles’ defense if the Bucs remain solid against the run. Let’s see if Baker Mayfield can keep things within a field goal. Buccaneers +3.5
Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Chicago Bears
I was leaning Browns all week (just listen to the podcast), but at some point you have to wonder when 2023 Joe Flacco is going to turn into a pumpkin. The Bears’ defense has played well since their ill-advised trade for Montez Sweat, and mobile quarterbacks have had some success against the Cleveland defense this year. Throw in a rash of injuries to the once-formidable unit coached by Jim Schwartz, and I’m surprising myself by taking the Bears here. Bears +3
Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Jake Browning experience has been fun, but he’ll face his stiffest test to-date going against Brian Flores and the Vikings’ 6th-ranked defense. Minnesota has been doing some fun stuff on that side of the ball, bringing frequent but well-disguised blitzes and playing a high-variance game that has mostly worked out well for them. If Nick Mullens can find his footing in his first start and get to 20 points, the Bengals might struggle to keep up. Vikings +3
Indianapolis Colts -1.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
It never feels good to pick Mitch Trubisky, but the Steelers are underdogs here and the Colts might be headed in the wrong direction. Indianapolis has struggled to win against defense-oriented teams all season, and with T.J. Watt out of the concussion protocol and Mike Tomlin’s squads always dangerous in this spot, we’ll count on Pittsburgh to limit Gardner Minshew. Steelers +1.5
New England Patriots +7.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
There’s a lot of hand-wringing about the Chiefs because of their recent skid, but a few one-score losses against top teams (and, uhh, the Packers) isn’t enough to make me jump ship. New England looks utterly lost on offense, and everyone on the Kansas City side will be relishing the chance to beat up on a former rival. Double digits is well within reach. Chiefs -7.5
Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. Houston Texans
We thought this line looked fishy, and today I saw that C.J. Stroud is considered doubtful for Sunday. I’m really impressed by what I’ve seen from DeMeco Ryans and his staff in Year 1, but a team can only take so much. With Tank Dell out and now Davis Mills likely under center, it might just be the end of the line for this year’s Texans. Mike Vrabel and Tennessee should do enough to win by a touchdown here. Titans -3.5
Detroit Lions -4 vs. Denver Broncos
A real split in public perception here, with Detroit looking as vulnerable as they have all season and Denver riding high after their big win over the Chargers. I think we’ve swung a bit too far on both teams; Jared Goff will be playing at home in a dome, and Russell Wilson doesn’t present Detroit’s defense with the same kinds of problems Justin Fields does. The Lions’ offense is too good to be shut down in this spot and I’m not sure Russell Wilson can keep up on the road. Lions -4
Los Angeles Rams -6.5 vs. Washington Commanders
Since the return of Kyren Williams the Rams look like one of the league’s top offenses. Washington hasn’t been able to stop anyone all season, and the problem has predictably gotten worse since they moved two big pieces at the trade deadline. The pixie dust sprinkled on Sam Howell early in the season appears to be wearing off, and if Matthew Stafford starts racking up points the Rams’ defense should generate turnovers from Washington’s 23rd-ranked offense. I think Washington will lose their 8th game by 7 or more points this week. Rams -6.5
Arizona Cardinals +13.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are dominating everyone right now, and their recent track record against the Cardinals doesn’t suggest a schematic mismatch to prevent another blowout. Seven of San Francisco’s ten wins this season have come by at least 14 points, and I’d rather count on them to get an eighth than Kyler Murray to inspire his entire team. 49ers -13.5
Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is riding high, which means it must be time for an inexplicable loss. The Cowboys have been considerably better at home this season, so Buffalo will be looking to press their cold weather home field advantage here. I’m a little nervous about the Bills’ depleted defense holding up against Dak and the passing game, but something just feels right about Josh Allen and the home team here. Bills -2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Trevor Lawrence gave the Ravens a lot of trouble last year, and while I’m a little worried about the Jaguars’ offense without Christian Kirk, their defense has helped them stay competitive in every non-49ers game this season. Baltimore needed overtime to knock off the Rams last week and haven’t looked truly dominant since their drubbing of a bad Seahawks team in Week 9. When everything clicks, they’re a lock to beat most teams by a touchdown, but they don’t click frequently enough to bank on them covering this spread against a strong team on the road. Jaguars +3.5
Seattle Seahawks +4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia has to turn it around eventually, right? Their run game is fantastic, and Seattle’s defense is just 19th against the run. The Seattle receivers are going to carve up Philly’s secondary if Geno looks like he did against the Cowboys a couple weeks back, but the rest of the Seahawks’ team isn’t good enough to hang with top competition. I think the most likely scenario is a regaining of form for the Eagles and a long, late-game drive to choke out any hope of a comeback. Eagles -4
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
