2023 NFL Picks Week 14: Who Should We Be Afraid Of?
Plenty of twists and turns, but we finished .500 last week and feel a little lucky to have managed that. Now we have a Week 14 filled with exciting quarterbacks like Bailey Zappe, Zach Wilson (again?), Joe Flacco (again?!), and Tommy DeVito. It’s getting a little bleak for some teams, but their crises provide us with great opportunities in our picks. Let’s see what we got!
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 vs. New England Patriots
I know the Patriots have been bad this year, but Mitchell Trubisky was giving six points to a Bill Belichick team. At some point every professional offense can put together a couple of touchdowns, and that’s exactly what Bailey Zappe did against a good-but-not-great Pittsburgh defense. It got close at the end, but with the points we were never in jeopardy. Patriots +6
Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
It sounds like Trevor Lawrence is going to try to play through his high ankle sprain, which is good news for a Jags’ team with C.J. Beathard next in line. Normally I’d be a bit more hesitant to take the road team and a chance of Beathard, but Myles Garrett and Cleveland’s defense clearly aren’t the same as they were earlier in the year. How much better do I feel about Joe Flacco than half a Lawrence or a whole Beathard? Not a full field goal. Jaguars +3
New Orleans Saints -5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Yes, the Panthers managed to cover against Tampa Bay last weekend. They still lost by three, and now they’re on the road against a New Orleans team that grades out as flat-out competent in all three phases. Maybe Bryce Young is due for an offensive outburst and a win, but that’s a chance I’m willing to take. Saints -5
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We’ve come this far with the Falcons, Questionably Qualified’s unanimous preseason pick for NFC South Champion. Are we going to back down now? Baker Mayfield is starting to go stale in the Tampa Bay backfield, and while I’m always scared of Mike Evans, the Falcons won their earlier matchup by a field goal despite some untimely turnovers from Desmond Ridder. I think they can tighten things up and win by a little more at home this week. Falcons -2.5
New York Jets +5.5 vs. Houston Texans
Ooh, Zach Wilson is back and this line moved two full points to 3.5! The Jets’ defense still has a strong reputation, but they’ve struggled against talented quarterbacks; in the last five weeks, they’ve given up 34 points to Tua, 32 to Josh Allen, and 27 to Justin Herbert. C.J. Stroud is looking that good already, and whether it’s Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, or Trevor Siemian, the Jets can’t do anything on offense. One touchdown isn’t asking too much. Texans -5.5
Chicago Bears +3 vs. Detroit Lions
Chicago has the rest advantage and they’re coming in as home underdogs, but I don’t think they have answers for what the Lions can do on offense. Detroit had a little hiccup where turnovers went against them, but they’ve still averaged over 31 points per game since their bye week. I’d love to see Justin Fields put together the kind of complete performance he’ll need to match that offensive output, but I’m way past banking on it. Lions -3
Baltimore Ravens -7 vs. Los Angeles Rams
In Week 7, I took the Lions as underdogs in Baltimore. They lost 38-6. In Week 9, I took Seattle in Baltimore. They lost 37-3. Now the Rams are coming to town, and as good as Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams have looked over the past two weeks, I don’t know if they’re ready for this kind of competition. Ravens -7
Cincinnati Bengals +0.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Jake Browning looked really good rallying the Bengals on Monday Night Football, but it’s rare to see a backup pull that off two weeks in a row. Indianapolis just keeps finding a way week after week, and we just need a win to cover. Colts -0.5
Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Both teams are coming off a bye and both teams are starting backup quarterbacks. I don’t believe in any kind of home field advantage for Las Vegas, so let’s toss that out; from there, Minnesota has a top-10 defense and a returning Justin Jefferson. The Raiders have only scored 20 points twice all season, and Aidan O’Connell is sure to struggle against Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy schemes. Let’s ride with Josh Dobbs. Vikings -3
San Francisco 49ers -10.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
These teams have met four times since the start of last season and the Niners have won by an average of 16 points. They’re at home here and it seems like everyone is healthy. I guess it’s possible Geno and the Seahawks’ offense figured something out in their close loss to Dallas last week, but it’s more likely they took advantage of a good schematic matchup and still fell short. San Francisco should win by two scores again. 49ers -10.5
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Denver Broncos
Was there something about the Chargers’ 6-0 win over the Patriots last week that should have changed our minds about them? Even last season when the Broncos were terrible, they split their series with the Chargers with an even point differential. Now Denver is looking better and the Chargers are just looking more injured, so I’m happy to take Sean Payton and the points here. Broncos +3
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Patrick Mahomes is favored by less than a field goal! Oh, you want more than that? Buffalo needs this game badly, but the Chiefs also need it to keep their hopes of a 1-seed alive. They’re coming off a tough loss on national television, and I don’t trust the Bills’ banged-up defense to keep Mahomes down all game long. Chiefs -2.5
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Philly’s loss last week was tough, and made it seem like their 10-1 start was just an illusion. Of course, they had wins over the Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Dolphins, and Rams in that stretch. Dallas started 8-3, but none of those wins came against good teams, and they were also embarrassed by the 49ers. Now I get to take the Eagles and more than a field goal? Twist my arm! Eagles +3.5
New York Giants +7 vs. Green Bay Packers
Recent performances, season-long trends, advanced stats: everything suggests the Packers are at least a touchdown better than the Tommy DeVito Giants. Maybe it’s my bias against Green Bay, but I just have a hunch that this game is going to be harder for them than it should be. Maybe it’s just a natural letdown after surprising everyone with three straight wins, but I’m going with my gut here. Giants +7
Miami Dolphins -14 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are 23rd in DVOA coming into this game. Against teams ranked 20th or worse this year, Miami is 8-0, averaging 37.1 points per game and winning by an average of 21 points. Do we have reason to believe Will Levis can throw a wrench in those trends? Not when the Dolphins have their eyes on the 1-seed and a 2,000-yard season for Tyreek Hill. Dolphins -14
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
