2023 NFL Picks Week 13: The Week of the Road Favorites
The Lions spoiled our early favorites parlay before it could even get going, but we can’t complain about the way the rest of the week turned out. With six teams on bye and another seven teams missing their Week 1 starting quarterbacks, Eagles-49ers is the only real draw of Week 13. Let’s hope it lives up to the billing, and maybe we can get some betting line-based drama with the rest of the slate!
Dallas Cowboys -9 vs. Seattle Seahawks
It feels like this is it for the 2023 Seahawks. They’re 6-5, but their wins have come over the Lions (nice!), Panthers, Giants, Cardinals, Browns, and Commanders (less nice). Their offense really misses Kenneth Walker and their defense now ranks 22nd in DVOA. Unfortunately, Dallas is set up to take advantage of Seattle’s biggest weaknesses, with a dominant pass rush and the ability to run the ball and salt games away. I just don’t think the Seahawks will get the breaks they need to keep this game within one score. Cowboys -9
Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Steelers gained more than 400 yards for the first time since Week 2 of 2020! They also scored just 16 points against a depleted Bengals’ team. They should be able to break 20 at home against Arizona’s 30th-ranked defense, but the line here just feels a little too big. Kyler Murray has at least been interesting since returning from injury, and if he gets help from James Conner and Trey McBride, the Cards can keep things close against Kenny Pickett. Cardinals +5.5
New York Jets +2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Tim Boyle is still starting for the New York Jets, so it’s reasonable to think they’ll lose by at least a field goal. If you need more analysis than that, the Jets’ defense is 4th overall but 17th against the run. Know a team that likes to run and does it well? I do! Falcons -2.5
Washington Commanders +9.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
I originally envisioned a shootout between the high-powered Miami offense and whatever Sam Howell is capable of, but after reviewing their schedules, it’s pretty clear the Dolphins take care of business against the dregs of the league. They only beat the Raiders by 7, but in other games against teams 20th or worse in DVOA they’ve won by 7 (Patriots), 50 (Broncos), 15 (Giants), 21 (Panthers), 14 (Patriots again), and 21 (Jets). The Commanders are 29th in DVOA and 31st on defense. Unless Howell can play his first mistake-free game without also losing explosive plays, this should be a double-digit game. Dolphins -9.5
New Orleans Saints +4 vs. Detroit Lions
Narrative-wise, it’s hard not to side with the Saints here. They’ve fallen behind the Falcons in the NFC South, and now they’re home underdogs against a Detroit team that has been leaking points since their Week 9 bye. It seems like Derek Carr should be able to move the ball regularly and keep things close, but there’s a big gap between these teams in advanced stats. The Lions’ rough stretch includes giving up 20+ to the Bears and Packers, but both offenses have been playing their best ball recently. Without any weather to worry about, I like Jared Goff to cut down on his turnovers and push the Detroit offense to a big day. Lions -4
Houston Texans -3.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Okay, the Broncos aren’t going to win SIX games in a row, right? Their turnaround has been fun, but the turnover luck they’ve enjoyed has to normalize eventually. C.J. Stroud has been good at avoiding turnovers for even an experienced quarterback, but some of the holes in Houston’s roster have been exposed in recent weeks. The Texans can definitely win, but I don’t know if they have the firepower to win big against this version of Denver. Broncos +3.5
Tennessee Titans +1 vs. Indianapolis Colts
This line feels suspicious. Tennessee has been better at home this season, but their road standard is a low bar and I don’t think the split is sustainable week-to-week. The Colts are better on offense and defense and beat the TItans by a touchdown earlier this season when Ryan Tannehill was still playing. Will Levis hasn’t been consistent enough for me to trust him to get outright wins against above-average teams just yet. Colts -1
New England Patriots +6 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Alright, last week was the last straw. With an opportunity to beat up on a 32nd-ranked Giants team starting Tommy DeVito at quarterback, Bill Belichick’s Patriots managed to lose 10-7. Even the Chargers may not be creative enough to find a way to lose in New England, and their season is on the line. If Justin Herbert is any bit of the top-5 QB people want him to be, he’ll find a way to 30 points and an easy cover here. Chargers -6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
For a minute there, I was really leaning Panthers. They should get a new coach bump (even if I kind of like Frank Reich) and the Bucs have been as meh as you’d expect of a team quarterbacked by Baker Mayfield. But if you go with the common assumption that home field advantage is worth 2.5 points, this line suggests the Bucs are only three points better than the Panthers on a neutral field. That’s insulting to pretty much every non-Giants, non-injury-ravaged team in the league. We should be able to count on Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to produce enough offense to cover a touchdown against Bryce Young and…who’s the best offensive weapon on the Panthers? Adam Thielen? Buccaneers -5.5
Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I picked the Niners to win this matchup in last year’s NFC Championship game, and I still think they would have pulled it off if not for Brock Purdy’s injury. Philadelphia looks less dominant this year, but I have questions about this version of the Niners as well. San Francisco’s defense just hasn’t been as lock-down as last year’s unit, especially against the run. I’m more excited to watch this game than I am to pick either side, but I don’t see why Philly should be getting points at home, so we’ll just take them and see what happens. Eagles +2.5
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns and the field goal-plus looked tempting, but the Rams’ offense with Kyren Williams back looks scary. Add in an injury to Myles Garrett that Cleveland says isn’t serious (sure, we’ll trust you) and the very real possibility of Joe Flacco starting a game in 2023, and I’m even more averse to Cleveland than usual. Yax and I never fully bought in to the “historic” talk around the Browns’ defense, and it certainly isn’t good enough to keep things close on the road against a playoff team if the QB situation is this dire. Rams -3.5
Green Bay Packers +6.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Okay, the Packers have been playing better lately, but seriously? Kansas City erased an early deficit last week to win by double digits, and the defense they’re facing here isn’t much scarier than what the Raiders have to offer. Jordan Love’s turnaround has been a big talking point the past few weeks, but Steve Spagnuolo should be licking his chops thinking about this matchup against a very young Green Bay offense. One touchdown isn’t asking much. Chiefs -6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -9 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This game could have been so exciting with Joe Burrow playing like he was a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, Jake Browning will be making his second start against a Jaguars’ defense ranked 5th in DVOA. I don’t expect it to go well for him, and Jacksonville’s recent offensive improvements have me thinking about their second-half run last year when they averaged nearly 27 points per game after their bye. I’m trusting Trevor Lawrence to win by double digits against this injured Bengals’ squad. Jaguars -9
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
