2023 NFL Picks Week 12: Thankful for Big Favorites
A small step back last week, but we're looking to get right in a big way heading into the stretch run. We have a full slate of 16 games for the first time in a while, but the bizarre new Thanksgiving schedule (three games on Thursday and one on Friday) helps break it up. Let's see who can come through for us on the holiday weekend!
Detroit Lions -7.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers and Jordan Love haven't looked terrible in recent weeks, but they really had no business winning that Chargers game and I'm not throwing any parades for keeping things competitive against Brett Rypien or Kenny Pickett. The Lions’ defense has looked vulnerable the past two weeks, but Justin Herbert is playing some of his best ball and Justin Fields has had a few quality starts this season. Detroit dominated Green Bay earlier this year and I don't expect a different result at home on Thanksgiving day. Lions -7.5
Dallas Cowboys -11 vs. Washington Commanders
There are a couple clips making the rounds where the subject is surprised to learn the Cowboys have zero wins over teams with winning records this season. I don't know what rock you've been living under to be caught off guard by that; the biggest surprise in their list of victims would probably be the Chargers, and they always find interesting ways to lose. They're still tied with the Ravens for the best point differential in the league, though, because they've played an easy schedule and absolutely pummeled the bad teams on it. Dallas has played seven games against teams ranked 20th or worse in DVOA (Giants twice, Rams, Jets, Cardinals, Patriots, Panthers). Despite losing to the Josh Dobbs Cardinals, their average scoring differential in those seven games is plus-21! Washington is 27th in DVOA and relies far too heavily on the NFL’s leading passer (in terms of attempts and not much else), Sam Howell. I wouldn't be surprised to see multiple pick-sixes in this one. Cowboys -11
Seattle Seahawks +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners have just had the Seahawks’ number since the beginning of last year, and there's a decent chance we see some Drew Lock as Geno Smith recovers from absorbing a full-speed Aaron Donald last week. Unless the 49ers are missing some of the critical pieces that make their offense go, I'm not sweating a touchdown spread. 49ers -7
New York Jets +10 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Jets finally yoinked Zach Wilson last week, just in the nick of time! What's that? The trade deadline was over a month ago and Josh Dobbs was available for peanuts? Oh dear…I would say better late than never, but I'm honestly not sure that's the case when your backup plan is Tim Boyle. Boyle sported a completion percentage south of 50% and a 1:13 TD:INT ratio over three years of Division 1 college football. I don't love taking Miami and such a big number after they let the Raiders hang around so long last week, but we have to be nearing a full-on revolt from the Jets’ defensive personnel. Everyone should forgive them if they lose track of Tyreek Hill a couple times. Dolphins -10
Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Yuck. We all know the Panthers are bad, but Tennessee hasn't reached consistently average either. Will Levis flashed a little in his first start but the Titans’ offense hasn't found a gear since. Still, Mike Vrabel’s squad has been pretty good at home and Carolina has only covered a spread this large three times all year. I don’t plan on watching it, but I’m counting on Tennessee to cover it. Titans -3.5
Houston Texans +2 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
C.J. Stroud has the Texans rolling, sitting at 6-4 and in good position for a playoff run. They also stomped Jacksonville back in Week 3, right before the Jags embarked on a 5-game win streak. I’m a little surprised Houston is getting points at home, but it’s not enough for me to go against Trevor Lawrence just yet. I’m hoping Doug Pederson’s offense turned a page last week and we’ll see a stretch run like last year, which, combined with the 6th-ranked defense in DVOA would make Jacksonville pretty scary. Let’s see if they can take care of business here against a division rival. Jaguars -2
Atlanta Falcons +1.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans has dominated this matchup in recent years but there’s too much churn in the personnel and coaching ranks for me to go strictly on history. Atlanta will have Desmond Ridder under center again, which may not bode well for fantasy managers of Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson but should put the team in a better position to win. I was actually leaning their way until it was announced Derek Carr had cleared concussion protocol; I love betting against Jameis Winston. With Carr back, the Saints won’t do anything flashy, but they’ve been the better team all year and should be able to get the win on the road. Saints -1.5
New York Giants +3 vs. New England Patriots
It’s a race to the top (of the draft board)! What a putrid matchup. It sounds like maybe Bailey Zappe is starting, but he’s better than Tommy DeVito, right? I’m not comfortable counting on him to repeat a 3 TD performance ever again. I’m probably going to regret this, but Belichick giving just a field goal to this Giants team is too tempting to pass up. Patriots -3
Cincinnati Bengals +1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I don’t know much about Jake Browning, but his college stats make Tim Boyle look like a scrub. It seems like Washington chucked the ball in his four seasons there, and he finished 6th in Heisman voting as a sophomore. Is he going to look good making his first career start against T.J. Watt and the Steelers’ defense? I doubt it, and Pittsburgh might get a new coach bump from the firing of Matt Canada. Steelers -1
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
These teams are very similar in DVOA, but the Colts are coming off a bye while the Bucs are trying to bounce back from a physical loss against the 49ers. I think Indianapolis has a coaching edge here, and I might take Gardner Minshew over Baker Mayfield in a neutral situation. Throw in Tampa’s inability to run the ball to take advantage of the Colts’ biggest defensive weakness, and a field goal at home isn’t asking too much. Colts -2.5
Denver Broncos -2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
There’s no way the Broncos are going to win five games in a row, right? I’m not exactly impressed by Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but he played well enough to get a win over the Steelers last week. These two teams have been playing similar styles, but I think Cleveland’s defense is miles better and they can run the ball more effectively. Russ is in for a long day, and even if the Broncos win 12-10, we’ll cover. Browns +2.5
Arizona Cardinals -1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Are we a little too early into Kyler Murray’s return to have him favored against Matthew Stafford? I know the Rams’ QB has been dinged up and they’ll be without Cooper Kupp this week, but Sean McVay’s squad has been able to move the ball pretty well all year. The Cardinals’ defense is 31st in DVOA, so they’ll need a lot of Kyler magic to keep pace if the Rams regain their early-season form; that should be easier with Kyren Williams back in the lineup. It might be close, but I’ll take Donald and Los Angeles getting a point. Rams +1
Philadelphia Eagles -3 vs. Buffalo Bills
My belief in Philly remains tenuous at best, but the Eagles are a really bad matchup for the Bills. Buffalo’s defense is designed to leverage speed rather than size against the run game even when they’re healthy, and they’re very much not at this point of the season. Josh Allen is capable of some incredible things, but Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni should be able to lean on the run game to limit his opportunities. I don’t like it, but the Eagles just keep winning and I’d feel too silly if they ground Buffalo down in a 27-13 game and left me examining my biases. Eagles -3
Las Vegas Raiders +9 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs really let me down last week, with Patrick Mahomes doing everything he possibly could to pull out the win only to be betrayed by his pass catchers. Aiden O’Connell is going to struggle considerably more than Jalen Hurts to deal with the Kansas City defense, and there’s no way an Andy Reid team loses two straight games coming off a bye. If last week doesn’t act as a wake-up call and lead the Chiefs to a big offensive game against the league’s 16th-ranked defense, I’ll actually start worrying about them. Chiefs -9
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore has a strong claim to being the best team in the league, and the Chargers just lost to the Packers in a way that drove their head coach to an embarrassingly petty press conference. Sure, Justin Herbert scares the heck out of me getting more than a field goal, but at some point the overall talent and coaching advantages have to win out. I think this will go more like Ravens-Lions or Ravens-Seahawks than Ravens-Browns. Ravens -3.5
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 vs. Chicago Bears
Justin Fields looked pretty good last week, and while Josh Dobbs keeps things interesting he’s not much fun to take as the favorite. I won’t like this pick as much if Justin Jefferson is activated, but if he’s missing I like Chicago’s chances to hang with the Vikings to the end. In that scenario, I like the points. Bears +3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
