2023 NFL Picks Week 11: Who Can We Trust?
Another solid week in the books! Houston, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans remain perplexing, but with 10 full weeks in the books we’re starting to get a good grip on who will consistently perform and who might be targeting the number one pick. We’ll need a few more winning weeks to put ourselves in good position heading into the postseason, so let’s see if we can nail down the AFC North this week and maybe, finally pick the Broncos correctly for the first time since Week 3. To the picks!
Baltimore Ravens -4 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens reminded me why I was hesitant to trust them in their fall-from-ahead loss to the Browns last week. Their offense is great! Their defense is great! Lamar is an MVP candidate! And yet…they gave up 4.9 yards per carry and blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati didn’t look much better last week, getting off to a slow start against Houston and falling short after rallying to tie the game late. This should be a great game, but the teams are too evenly matched for me to feel good about giving more than a field goal either way. Give me Joe B. and the points against a Baltimore team reeling from a long game against a physical Browns’ defense. Bengals +4
Detroit Lions -10 vs. Chicago Bears
Justin Fields is back for the Bears this week and Detroit’s defense hasn’t looked great since they put the clamps on Baker Mayfield and the Bucs back in Week 6. Their offense is really clicking, though, and Chicago has given up points to almost everyone. Montez Sweat can’t do enough on his own to hold the Lions under 30 in Detroit, so unless Fields takes over with his legs it’s going to get late early. Lions -10
Houston Texans -4 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Houston’s big win over the Bengals had me leaning their way, but after reviewing their schedule I realized they’ve won only 3 games by 4+ points all season. They’ve been far better than we expected in their first year under DeMeco Ryans, but they’re still vulnerable in multiple areas. With James Conner and Kyler Murray both back for the Cardinals and Trey McBride emerging from the shadow of Zach Ertz, the Cards can keep the game competitive much like Tampa Bay or even Carolina has against Houston. It doesn’t feel great, but I would have been happier to take the Texans if it was just a field goal. Cardinals +4
Carolina Panthers +10.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas against teams ranked 15th or worse in offensive rushing DVOA: 5-0 with a point differential of +130. Teams ranked 11th or better? 1-3 and -26. The Panthers rank 30th, and we know they aren’t great at passing or defense either. Carolina’s nightmare season will continue, and Dallas fans will keep convincing themselves they’re just a few bad bounces away from belonging in the “best teams in the league” conversation after another blowout of a bad team. Cowboys -10.5
Washington Commanders -10 vs. New York Giants
Okay, I’m as negative as anyone on the Tommy DeVito experience, but 10 points? For the Commanders?! Of course they could get out to a lead and make this a crazy blowout, but they’re 4-6 and haven’t won a game by more than 8 points all year. I’m not ready to lay double digits with a team this bad just yet. Giants +10
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Most of the factors I usually look at are telling me to take Tennessee. The Titans have historically played well in Jacksonville, Mike Vrabel is a fun coach to pick as an underdog, and the gap in DVOA here doesn’t seem big enough to merit a spread this high for a divisional matchup. I’m probably just too optimistic about Trevor Lawrence, but I’m banking on an offensive turnaround from the Jags this week. If it just isn’t in the cards this year I’ll whiff on this pick, but if they can get something going through the air, the surprisingly good Jacksonville defense should make things miserable for Will Levis. Jaguars -6.5
Cleveland Browns -4 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I think this line has dropped since news of Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury, but I’m ready to take the Steelers as smaller underdogs in Cleveland anyway. Have we seen a lot of evidence to suggest the Browns can string together multiple strong games on both sides of the ball? Pittsburgh is going to make life hard on whoever is playing quarterback, and their incredibly frustrating offense keeps doing just enough to take every game down to the wire. Unless Trubisky is forced back into action, I’m taking the Steelers. Steelers +4
Miami Dolphins -12 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I’ve been 2-0 backing the Antonio Pierce bump, but they sure made things interesting against the Jets last week. Now is the time to fade them, facing an explosive offense on the road and running rookie quarterback Aiden O’Connell out against Vic Fangio. Add in a frustrated Miami team coming off a bye, and you have the makings of a blowout. Dolphins -12
Green Bay Packers +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I know the Chargers are frustrating, but how much of a home field bump are the Packers getting to make this a field goal line? Jordan Love has been terrible, and the Chargers have been moving the ball consistently despite some injuries. Aaron Jones certainly scares me, but Joe Barry isn’t facing Brett Rypien again this week. No way Green Bay can get the 25 points they’ll need to keep pace with Justin Herbert. Chargers -3
San Francisco 49ers -11 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have been beating me all year long, but I’m going back to the early-season well and counting on the Niners to blow them out this week. Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel are back in the lineup, Chase Young adds some more juice to their pass rush, and Baker Mayfield isn’t the right kind of quarterback to lead a comeback if things get out of hand. Despite their slump, San Francisco has five wins of 14+ points this season, and they’ll pick up a sixth here. 49ers -11
Buffalo Bills -7 vs. New York Jets
How many ways can the Bills disappoint their fans? I never want to be in a spot where I need Zach Wilson to come through, but the Jets won this matchup with him in Week 1 and Buffalo has had nothing but bad luck since then. I don’t want anything to do with the moneyline, but do I think this game could end up 13-10 Buffalo? Absolutely, and I like the odds of that more than a miraculous return to form for the injured and spiraling Bills. Jets +7
Los Angeles Rams +1 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The return of Matthew Stafford makes this an exciting game, but I don’t know what version of him to expect. The Rams added Carson Wentz to the roster, and if Stafford comes off the field again it’s either him or Brett Rypien stepping in. I know Seattle has been disappointing, but they’re the better team and we just need a win with this line. Let’s see what Geno can do for us. Seahawks -1
Denver Broncos -2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
All aboard the Josh Dobbs train! Sure, the Broncos have looked better in recent weeks, but Minnesota’s defense just keeps improving and they’ll be pressuring Russell Wilson this week. With T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison pulling in passes and Dobbs scrambling for first downs, I’m excited to take them and the points. Vikings +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Patrick Mahomes is favored by a field goal or less! The Chiefs won this matchup in the Super Bowl against a much better version of the Eagles, and I love what Kansas City’s defense is doing right now. It probably won’t be the same kind of shootout we watched in February, but I’m not passing up an opportunity to take Mahomes and a line this low, even before accounting for Andy Reid coming off a bye week. Chiefs -3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
