2023 NFL Picks Week 10: At a Crossroads
Thankfully our experiment in sleep deprivation produced just barely positive results; not bad enough to tank our season numbers and not good enough to make me intentionally try it again. This week we have a pretty tricky set of lines, but we’re going to rely on vibes where the raw numbers might be misleading or inconclusive. Let’s get to the picks!
Chicago Bears -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Tyson Bagent still starting for the Bears? And they’re favored by more than a field goal? Say no more, give me the road team. Even if the Panthers are terrible (31st in total DVOA), the gap between them and the Bears (29th) isn’t large enough for this spread. Panthers +3.5
New England Patriots +1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts came through for us last week and continued their streak of scoring 20+ points in every game this season. New England definitively didn’t, managing just three points in the second half of a loss to Washington. With the game taking place in Frankfurt and the big gap in underlying numbers (Indianapolis is closer in DVOA to Cleveland in 8th place than New England in 24th), I thought this line would be at least a field goal. It’s hard to say Belichick has much of an edge over what we’ve seen from Shane Steichen in his first year, so I’m going with Indy. Colts -1.5
Baltimore Ravens -6 vs. Cleveland Browns
Baltimore spanked Cleveland when they met in Week 4 and Dorian Thompson-Robinson somewhat unexpectedly filled in for Deshaun Watson. Since then, the Ravens are 4-1 with a +74 point differential while the Browns have gone 3-1 with a +26 point differential. Both teams have been good, but Baltimore’s recent stretch borders on dominant on both sides of the ball. Myles Garrett and the Browns’ defense might play well, but they struggled against Lamar earlier this season and I have no faith in Watson facing Baltimore’s 2nd-ranked defense. I expect the game to get away from Cleveland quickly. Ravens -6
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers picked up a win over Brett Rypien last week, but their only road win came back in Week 1 against the Bears. Pittsburgh is a better team on both sides of the ball with how bad Jordan Love has looked, and Mike Tomlin loves to make things messy at home. Kenny Pickett has a lot of shortcomings, but Green Bay isn’t the team to expose them. I wish it was just a field goal here, but I don’t trust Matt LaFleur’s team based on what they’ve done this year. Steelers -3.5
Cincinnati Bengals -7 vs. Houston Texans
There’s a lot of well-justified buzz around the Texans and C.J. Stroud after his amazing performance last week, ending a game-winning drive with a beautiful pass with just six seconds left, but Cincinnati is playing better than anyone Houston has faced since maybe Baltimore in Week 1. The Bengals will be at home for this one and they still need every win they can get to secure playoff positioning after their slow start. The injuries to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins make me nervous, but Lou Anarumo has what it takes to make Stroud look like the rookie he is. Houston is a fun story, but this is a road game against a real contender. One touchdown isn’t too much. Bengals -7
Minnesota Vikings +2.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
I’m still upset Josh Dobbs was forced into duty last week because I’m pretty sure Jaren Hall was going to help Atlanta cover before he had to leave with an injury. At some point, though, all of these injuries have to catch up to the Vikings. They might be without their #1 and #3 receivers, their tight end, and one of their tackles heading into a game against the league’s 9th-ranked defense. Maybe Brian Flores can dial up the right blitzes to really rattle Derek Carr, but it’s more likely Minnesota’s offense gets completely shut down. Saints -2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 vs. Tennessee Titans
I guess Vegas and I had the same reaction to this matchup, because I have no clue who should win this game. Will Levis has looked fine so far, but Tampa’s defense is good enough to give a rookie trouble. Does it feel better taking Baker Mayfield and an offense averaging under 20 points per game since their Week 5 bye? I’m counting on the coaching edge Mike Vrabel provides and the extra point to get us over the hump in such an evenly-matched game. Titans +1
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Both teams are coming off their bye, but they were headed in very different directions before the week off. Jacksonville is on a 5-game winning streak where their defense has picked up any offensive slack, beating teams by an average score of 27-16. The Niners have lost their last three games to Cincinnati (makes sense), Cleveland (...sure) and Minnesota (ick). I still think San Francisco has one of the best rosters in the league and the enormous advantage that is Kyle Shanahan’s offense; maybe with a week off, they’ll get back to lighting up the scoreboard and shut Trevor Lawrence down on the other end. 49ers -3
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Clayton Tune is no longer the starting quarterback for the Cardinals, as Kyler Murray is making his return to the field this week. Is he worth the contract Arizona gave him before they fired their head coach and moved on to a new GM? I lean no, but he’s more than good enough to give Atlanta’s 25th-ranked defense fits. I don’t trust anything the Falcons do after watching them lose five of their last seven games, and while I’m sure they’ll keep things close (they’ve been in one-score games for five straight weeks), I can’t pick them to win on the road. Cardinals +1.5
Los Angeles Chargers +1.5 vs. Detroit Lions
Detroit is traveling out west where they’ll almost certainly have a home field advantage, and the gap in DVOA here is pretty big. Detroit also has a rest advantage, coming off their bye week while the Chargers took down the Jets on Monday night. Maybe Justin Herbert will regain his borderline-MVP form of prior years, but I’m more confident in Jared Goff’s matchup against the Chargers’ defense than any other aspect of the game. Lions -1.5
Dallas Cowboys -16 vs. New York Giants
The Giants are rolling Tommy DeVito out with Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor unavailable, and his QBR was somehow worse against the Raiders than it was in his debut against the Jets when he went 2/7 for -1 yards. The Cowboys have been beating up on bad teams all season long, including a healthier version of this Giants’ group back in Week 1. Strange things happen, but Dallas should definitely win this matchup by at least 20 points. Cowboys -16
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 vs. Washington Commanders
I spent most of last season doubting Geno Smith’s renaissance, and somehow I’ve let him burn me multiple times this year. He and the Seahawks’ offense should enjoy more success against Washington’s 29th-ranked defense than they did against the Browns (1st) or Ravens (2nd), but I’m more worried about what their own shoddy pass defense will give up to Sam Howell and Washington’s offense here. The advanced numbers aren’t pretty, but the Commanders can score in bunches and if the game stays close I’m worried Seattle’s offensive line can’t keep Geno upright. The number is just a little too high given the Seahawks’ struggles to blow anyone out. Commanders +6.5
Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 vs. New York Jets
Am I too excited to pick against the road favorite Jets? Absolutely! But the Raiders are still riding the good vibes you can only get by ridding yourself of Josh McDaniels and the Jets’ locker room is going to turn on Zach Wilson eventually. If their defense gives up any points to Aiden O’Connell, Maxx Crosby might eat Zach Wilson alive and put Jets’ fans out of this particular misery. Raiders +2.5
Buffalo Bills -7.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Denver has looked like a different team since their 70-20 loss to Miami in Week 3; they’re actually 3-2 since then and are now coming off a bye week after beating Kansas City. Buffalo has been trending downward as injuries continue to mount, with a 2-3 record and a negative point differential since their big win over the Dolphins in Week 4. I wish I could get this game at just 7, but I need to see the Broncos’ defense shut down a really good offense with a healthy quarterback before I reconsider their season entirely. This might be Buffalo’s last chance to make a statement before their schedule gets harder down the stretch, so they should be going all out to secure a win and keep their playoff aspirations on track. Bills -7.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
